Goldman Sachs has lowered the possibility of an economic recession happening in the United States to 35%.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report that due to the optimism brought by the easing of trade tensions, the likelihood of the United States experiencing an economic recession in the next 12 months has decreased. Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a US economic recession from 45% to 35%, and pointed out that recent agreements will result in a slightly lower increase in actual tariff rates than expected. They also mentioned that the Trump administration may announce other preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, which could further reduce the actual tariff rates in the United States. Given the development of the trade situation and the significant loosening of financial conditions in the past month, Goldman Sachs has raised its expectation for US economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0%, and has postponed the expected time for the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates from July to December.