JPMorgan Chase predicts a 50% chance of a 15%-20% depreciation in the Romanian currency.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan believe that there is a 50% chance of political turmoil in Romania, which could lead to a depreciation of the country's currency, the leu, by 15-20%, with another possibility being a depreciation of 5%. The Romanian financial markets have been volatile this week as far-right presidential candidate George Simion won in the first round of voting on Sunday, deepening the political crisis in this Central European economy. The analysts at J.P. Morgan stated that although stability after the decisive second round of elections on May 18th may limit the leu's depreciation to within 5%, further turmoil and uncertainty on how Romania will control its spending could trigger larger adjustments. They wrote, "Currently, we believe the probabilities between these two scenarios are 50%/50%, but this is a highly uncertain judgment."