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UBS released a report stating that due to heavier and broader US tariffs than expected, they have downgraded Samsonite's rating from "buy" to "neutral" and lowered the target price from 28.7 Hong Kong dollars to 15 Hong Kong dollars. The bank expects significant demand and profit impact on North America and believes that although the company's long-term growth potential remains positive, it will face challenges in the near term. UBS mentioned that the current market volatility may delay the company's timeline for a second listing in the US. The bank stated that the company's current valuation is reasonable and there is limited space to downgrade further, unless there is a global recession or further profit decline. UBS predicts a 15% drop in North American market sales this year, with overall sales declining by 7%, reflecting a more severe downturn cycle than in 2019, and expects this year's adjusted EBITDA profit margin to shrink by 220 basis points to 16.9%.
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