JPMorgan survey: stagflation may occur in the United States in the next year, and investors generally not optimistic about the US dollar.

A survey released by J.P. Morgan on Friday shows that the risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy in the next year is much higher than that of a recession, with cash being the most favored asset class in 2025. Most people believe that the trade war initiated by the Trump-led U.S. government has had the most serious negative impact on the U.S. economy. Three-fifths of respondents believe that U.S. economic growth will stagnate, with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while one-fifth of respondents expect inflation to exceed 3.5%. Respondents also reached a consensus on the weakness of the U.S. dollar, with most expecting the euro to reach or exceed $1.11 by the end of the year, causing the dollar to depreciate by at least 8% this year. J.P. Morgan also noted that there are differing opinions among U.S. investors and global investors on the consequences of a change in U.S. leadership and its market impact. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is not expected to decrease significantly from its current level, with over half of respondents believing that by the end of 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4.25% or higher. Nearly half of respondents expect Brent oil prices to stabilize around $66 per barrel, while 30% expect prices to fall to $60 or lower. 13% of investors believe that emerging market stocks will outperform other asset classes, while 9% believe that stocks in developed countries will outperform. 57% of respondents expect Wall Street stocks to be the asset class most heavily affected by capital outflows this year.