When the world is caught up in a new round of tariff games, the probability of a US economic recession is equivalent to "flipping a coin".

Zhitong Finance APP has learned that according to the latest survey report from Bloomberg, prominent economists consulted and interviewed believe that the global tariff battle initiated by the Trump administration has had a significant impact. It is widely believed that in the new round of global trade negotiations, as well as in the trade policy tug-of-war that various global economic powers such as China, the European Union, and Canada are embroiled in due to US tariff policies, the probability of the US falling into an economic recession in the next 12 months has jumped from 30% as shown in the March survey to 45%. This also means that the probability of the US economy entering a recession is almost the same as flipping a coin.