Allianz issues a report warning that quantum computing poses a "threat that may precede its benefits," with the global financial system facing risks from the failure of cryptocurrency systems.

On May 2, the Allianz Group of Germany released a latest research report pointing out that the potential threat of quantum computing to the global financial system may arrive before its commercial benefits. The report warns that as quantum computing capabilities improve, existing encryption systems face the risk of becoming ineffective, and the global financial industry must immediately initiate defensive migration to address the potentially early arrival of "Quantum Day." The report indicates that the commercial value of quantum computing is currently concentrated in complex financial simulations such as derivatives pricing, while it has not yet demonstrated a stable advantage over classical computing methods in areas like portfolio optimization. In contrast, the threat of quantum computing to existing encryption systems is more urgent. Since the emergence of relevant cracking algorithms in 1994, breaching the existing encryption systems only awaits the maturation of hardware. Experts assess that the probability of quantum computers with cryptographic capabilities appearing within the next ten years is between 28% and 49%. The report particularly emphasizes the security risks of "collecting first, decrypting later." Encrypted data currently intercepted and stored by attackers may be decrypted once quantum computers mature, posing a serious threat to financial data and government information that need to remain confidential for extended periods. In the field of digital assets, risks have already begun to emerge. By the spring of 2026, approximately 6 million bitcoins will face potential risks due to exposed public keys, which may also affect stablecoins and tokenized assets. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that if these risks evolve into a systemic crisis, economic losses over the next 15 to 20 years could exceed 1% of the global GDP. The report emphasizes that the private sector is currently primarily pursuing commercial benefits, while responses to security threats are mostly conducted internally. Currently, only about 35% of large institutions have completed a comprehensive inventory of their encrypted assets. Allianz advises that financial institutions should not be complacent; regardless of when "Quantum Day" arrives, they must immediately establish agile encryption architectures, prioritize asset inventories, develop migration roadmaps, and test contingency plans to ensure the security and resilience of the financial system in the quantum era.