In the autumn and winter of 2026, a super El Nio event will form, continuing to significantly influence the climate, marine ecology, and disaster prevention and reduction in our country.

Recently, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center comprehensively analyzed the results of ocean monitoring, atmospheric circulation, and multi-model predictions, and judged that a super El Nio event will occur in the autumn and winter of this year. It is not ruled out that it may surpass the historically super El Nio of 1997/1998, and various climate and ocean disaster risks need to be prevented in advance. The latest monitoring data shows that the warming characteristics of this El Nio are typical. The warming first appeared in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru in the spring, gradually expanding westward. It officially entered the El Nio state in May, and the recent warming rate has significantly accelerated. Currently, both domestic and foreign dynamic, statistical, and artificial intelligence model predictions are highly consistent, and it is expected that this autumn and winter will reach strong to super El Nio standards, with the possibility of breaking historical records continuing to increase. Experts from the National Marine Environment Forecasting Center stated that this El Nio will have a significant and sustained impact on China's climate, marine ecology, and disaster prevention and mitigation. In terms of typhoons, the number of typhoons generated in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea is relatively low, but they are stronger and tend to originate further east and south, necessitating specific precautions against the disastrous waves, storm surges, and seawater intrusion caused by strong typhoons. In terms of climate, this summer and autumn, there will be above-average precipitation in northern and northeastern China and the Jiangnan region, while the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will experience below-average precipitation, with overall characteristics of a warm winter. In the marine sector, sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and northern East China Sea are above average, with notable risks of marine heatwaves threatening aquaculture safety and exacerbating the issue of coral bleaching.