CICC: Clear signals of the bottoming out in the current real estate market, with the supply side continuing to improve in quality and shrinking in quantity.

The research report by CITIC Construction Investment stated that the current real estate market has clear signals of hitting bottom, with first-tier cities leading the way in stabilizing prices and volume. Second-hand housing transactions are significantly higher than new housing, becoming a benchmark for the national rebound. However, third and fourth-tier cities are still trapped in high inventory and declining prices. On the supply side, there is a trend of improving quality and reducing quantity, with land supply and new construction areas continuing to decline. In the future, the contraction of new housing supply will accelerate the balance of supply and demand, while the construction of affordable housing will steadily progress but still face obstacles such as funding and land. The scale of industry financing on the funding side has hit a historical low, with widening differences in financing costs between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and residents' willingness to leverage remains low, becoming the main constraint on market recovery. Significant progress has been made in risk resolution, with the completion of the task of guaranteeing delivery of commercial buildings, and the end phase of restructuring of debt defaults for real estate companies, clearing up incremental risks. In the long run, the peak of the total population will shift the industry from incremental expansion to a game of existing stock, accelerating the construction of a new dual-track system in the market, and policies will adhere to different policies for different cities, with still room for loosening policies in first-tier cities.