Coke is brewing for the seventh round of price increases, and coking enterprises are on the verge of losses.
After a short-term adjustment, the prices of coking coal and coke have once again risen in recent days. As of the afternoon of June 12, the main contract for coke 2609 closed at 2078 yuan/ton, reaching a recent high of 2126 yuan/ton during trading. In the past two trading days, the price of this main contract has accumulated a gain of over 5%.
"In the spot market, coking coal prices have remained strong this week, with the sixth round of price increases implemented and the seventh round of increases being prepared," said Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Liu Lulu. As of the close of June 11, the mainstream ex-factory price for first-grade dry quench coke in Shanxi was 1795-1865 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the closing price of June 4. The average ex-factory price this week was 1797 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.16% compared to the previous week.
It is understood that the safety situation in Shanxi coal mines remains severe, leading to slow recovery of coking coal supply at the mine mouth. Although coking coal futures prices fell from their highs earlier in the week, speculative market demand weakened, but the spot market demand remained strong and prices for coking coal at the mine mouth continued to rise. The sixth round of price increases for coke on June 10 has been fully implemented, with the price increase for top loading coke expanding to 75 yuan/ton, and the seventh round of price increases is also on the agenda.
The latest analysis from Guotai Junan Futures also shows that in the current coking coal supply situation, coal prices at the raw material end continue to rise, some high-quality coal sources are still in short supply, some coking enterprises are forced to limit production, and the production level of coking enterprises has been slightly affected, with coking enterprises continuing to maintain low inventory levels. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills is decent, production enthusiasm is high, steel mill operations are maintained at a high and stable level, blast furnace utilization rates are relatively high, providing some support for coking coal demand.
China CITIC Futures also mentioned that the limit on coking coal holdings has been raised, and there is a strong expectation for the seventh round of price increases, indicating strong price support. Domestic coking coal supply remains limited, but imports remain at high levels, intensifying the struggle between long and short positions, leading to volatile market conditions.
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