TrendForce: In February, domestic photovoltaic component bidding volume decreased by 35.5%, with bidding prices rebounding from oversupply.

Due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall bidding projects for domestic photovoltaic modules in February were relatively few. According to incomplete statistics from Jibang Consultation, in February 2024, a total of about 10.9GW of photovoltaic modules were announced domestically, a decrease of 35.5% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 62.7% compared to the same period last year. This is mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, resulting in the postponement of many bidding projects. It is expected that after the holiday ends, the number of module bidding projects in China in March is expected to accelerate. In January and February, domestic N-type module bidding accounted for nearly 80%, and P-type modules are expected to accelerate their withdrawal from the market. According to incomplete statistics, the bidding volume for domestic photovoltaic modules in January-February 2024 reached 27.8GW, a 15% decrease compared to last year. Among them, GW-level module bidding owners were only 9, accounting for 90% of the total bidding volume. Although the overall bidding volume has decreased, some large projects are still steadily progressing, such as the 7GW N-type photovoltaic module joint procurement by Petrochina Natural Gas Group Limited in 2024 and the 9GW photovoltaic module frame centralized procurement by Three Gorges Group in 2024 (first batch). It is worth noting that the acceptance of N-type modules is increasing and the demand remains strong. In large module joint procurement bids, Petrochina's 7GW module joint procurement is all N-type, and about 8.5GW of the 9GW photovoltaic module bid from Three Gorges Group clearly states the bidding for N-type modules. The bidding volume for N-type modules in January-February reached 21.76GW, accounting for 78.3%; the demand for P-type module bidding has sharply decreased, making them likely to exit the market faster. The acceptance of bifacial modules has increased, surpassing 50% of the bidding share. Currently, the P-type modules available on the market have a power output of around 550Wp and above, while N-type modules have a power output ranging from 565-575Wp and above. In January and February 2024, the bidding scale for modules with 540W and above reached approximately 15.1GW, accounting for 54.3%, and for modules with 570W and above, the bidding scale was 11.4GW, accounting for 41%. The bidding scale for modules with 600Wp and above was 1.35GW, accounting for 4.86%. In February 2024, there were no specific size requirements for photovoltaic module bidding, as most manufacturers' products are currently large-sized. Bidding for unspecified size modules is basically for large-sized modules (182 & 210), while 166-sized products have largely exited the market. With the increasing recognition of the power generation gain of bifacial modules in the downstream market, the bidding volume for bifacial modules is gradually increasing. Out of the 27.8GW module bids, approximately 14.44GW clearly require bifacial photovoltaic modules, all of which are bifacial modules, with double-glass bifacial bids accounting for around 22%. Module bidding prices show signs of rebound, and HJT modules still have advantages. Due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the P-type module market, after experiencing continuous bottoming out, bidding prices have started to rise. In January, the lowest bidding price for a 2GW P-type bifacial double-glass module bid from Huaneng Group dropped to 0.79 yuan/W, setting a new low. In February, Quanxing Group held a 250MW P-type module joint procurement bidding, with bidding prices ranging from 0.82 yuan/W to 0.88 yuan/W, and an average bidding price of 0.851 yuan/W. Although the average bidding price is still decreasing compared to before, the low bidding price increased by 0.03 yuan/W. With the rising costs in the industry and the increasing mismatch in supply and demand for P-type modules, it is expected that there will be some room for the bidding prices of P-type modules to rise in March. Bidding prices for N-type modules have also shown signs of increase. In February, approximately 8.49GW of N-type module joint procurements were opened for bidding, with prices ranging from 0.82 yuan/W to 1.3 yuan/W, and an average bidding price of 0.948 yuan/W, an increase of 0.016 yuan/W compared to January. At the beginning of the month, Petrochina carried out a bidding for approximately 7GW of N-type modules, with prices ranging from 0.82 yuan/W to 0.98 yuan/W and an average bidding price of around 0.911 yuan/W, maintaining a low price. In the second half of the month, the average bidding price for N-type modules ranged from 0.861 yuan/W to 1.3 yuan/W, with an average bidding price of 0.984 yuan/W, showing a clear rebound compared to before, mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials. To restore profits, many leading companies are raising prices. It is worth noting that HJT modules still have good bargaining space. The bidding price for Quanxing Group's HJT bifacial double-glass modules with a power output of 710W and above ranged from 1.03 yuan/W to 1.3 yuan/W, with an average price of 1.116 yuan/W. Compared to the bidding price for N-type TOPCon modules in the same project of 0.885 yuan/W, the price difference is 0.23 yuan/W. The dividend space for HJT modules is still considerable. First-tier companies account for 69% of the bidding scale, with Tongwei, JA Solar, and LONGi having more standard sizes In January and February 2024, a total of 78.3GW of bidding results and candidate winners had been announced, including a standard size of 22.3GW and a first candidate winner size of 56GW. Among the companies with confirmed bidding results, JA Solar, Jinko, LONGi, and Suntech, four top-tier companies, had a bidding scale of 54.23GW, accounting for 69.3%. The top five companies (LONGi, Trina Solar Co., Ltd., JA Solar, Tongwei, CSI Solar Co., Ltd.) had a bidding scale of 57.7GW, accounting for 73.7%. Tongwei, JA Solar, and LONGi have more standard sizes, with them being 2.5GW, 2.16GW, and 1.56GW respectively. LONGi, Suntech, and JA Solar had the largest standard sizes among the first candidate winners. Overall, in January and February 2024, the acceptance of N-type modules in China further increased, accounting for nearly 80% of the bidding share. This is expected to quickly achieve market product iteration and upgrades, squeezing out the share of P-type modules. P-type modules are expected to exit the market faster than previously expected. Bifacial module bidding shows an increasing trend.As the quantity gradually increases, the recognition of double-sided double-glass components has improved. Influenced by the rise in prices of main and auxiliary materials and the need for profit repair, the signal of rebound in component bidding prices is obvious. HJT, as a new generation of component technology, still has significant room for dividend."C'est un beau jour pour une promenade dans le parc." "It's a beautiful day for a walk in the park."