TrendForce: Both quantity and price rise, DRAM industry revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to increase by nearly 30% compared to the previous quarter.

According to a report from TrendForce, benefiting from the recovery of stockpiling momentum and the cost control benefits of the three major manufacturers, contract prices of mainstream products have risen, driving the global DRAM industry revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 to reach $17.46 billion, a quarterly increase of 29.6%. Looking at the trends in the DRAM market in the first quarter of 2024, the main goal of manufacturers is still to improve profits, with a strong intention to raise prices, leading to a nearly 20% increase in contract prices for the quarter, while shipment volume is expected to decline slightly due to the traditional off-season. In terms of revenue in the fourth quarter, Samsung had the highest growth rate among the three major manufacturers, with revenue reaching $7.95 billion, a quarterly growth rate of over 50%, mainly due to the increase in shipments of 1alpha nm DDR5, resulting in a more than 60% increase in Server DRAM shipments. SK Hynix, although the shipment volume increased by only 1-3% for the quarter, continued to benefit from the price advantage of HBM and DDR5, as well as the profits from high-capacity Server DRAM modules, with an average sales price increase of 17-19% for the quarter, resulting in fourth quarter revenue of $5.56 billion, a quarterly increase of 20.2%. Micron saw both volume and price increases, with a quarterly increase of 4-6% in shipment volume and average sales price. With a relatively low proportion of DDR5 and HBM, revenue growth was more moderate, reaching $3.35 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 8.9%. In terms of capacity planning, Samsung significantly reduced production in the fourth quarter of last year, but after inventory pressure improved, wafer starts began to rise in the first quarter of this year, with an operating rate of about 80%. Demand is expected to significantly increase in the second half of the year, and capacity will continue to rise through the fourth quarter. SK Hynix is actively expanding HBM capacity, with wafer starts gradually increasing, and as HBM3e goes into production, wafer starts for related advanced processes will also continue to rise. Micron's wafer starts are showing a rebound trend, and the company will actively increase the proportion of its advanced 1beta nm process for producing HBM, DDR5, and LPDDR5(X) products. With the addition of equipment for advanced processes, capacity will converge. Nanya saw a rise in volume and price, with consumer DRAM terminal sales momentum recovering slowly, mainly driven by the price increase and resulting stockpiling momentum, with a fourth quarter revenue increase of 12.1% to $274 million. Winbond did not raise contract prices despite adding production capacity at the KH factory, focusing on destocking and expanding its customer base, with positive shipment performance driving a 19.5% quarterly increase in revenue to approximately $133 million in the fourth quarter. PSMC benefited from the continual rise in spot and contract prices, with increased stocking momentum from the client side, as well as a low base for shipments, resulting in a significant 110% growth in DRAM revenue in the fourth quarter to $39 million, and with foundry services included, total revenue increased by 11.6%.