Guosen: The quality of content supply on the content end is expected to improve in the 24th year. The outlook for the revival of the film industry is even more optimistic.

Guosen released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2024, the quality of content supply is expected to improve, and the outlook for the movie industry is more optimistic. 1) Considering the supply cycle of domestic and Hollywood films, under the strong demand release, this year China Film Co., Ltd.'s box office is expected to surpass the level of 64.2 billion yuan in 2019, reaching a new historical high. At the same time, benefiting from the characteristics of high operating leverage, exhibition channels are expected to usher in a period of better profit release; 2) In the short term, after the Spring Festival, more than 100,000 people want to watch 14 movies, two imported films and the canceled film "We Dance in the Sun" will be released, and the film market is expected to continue the enthusiasm of the Spring Festival, with exhibition channels and production companies expected to continue to benefit. Guosen's main points include: Box office and audience numbers reach new highs, ranking first in the history of the Spring Festival box office. In 2024, the box office of China's Spring Festival reached 7.306 billion yuan (excluding service fees), an increase of 17.65% year-on-year, recording the highest box office in the history of China's Spring Festival. The average ticket price was 44.5 yuan, a decrease of 7.10% year-on-year, with an average of over 160 million viewers, an increase of 26.36% year-on-year, with the growth in viewers being the core driving force for the box office growth during this Spring Festival. Content supply: Significant head effect, release of viewing demand, growth in audience numbers driving the box office up. 1) This year's Spring Festival saw a total of 8 films released, with "Crazy Hot" and "Pegasus Life 2" contributing a total box office of 63.66%. The Spring Festival lineup involved listed companies including Beijing Enlight Media, MAOYAN ENT, Hengdian Entertainment, China Film Co., Ltd., Wanda Film Holding, etc.; 2) The absolute value and concentration of the Spring Festival box office contributions are high. In the background of a slight decrease in ticket prices, the growth in audience numbers drives the overall box office up, reflecting the current recovery of the China Film Co., Ltd. market and the strong demand for high-quality films. Channel side: The concentration of cinemas has decreased, the concentration of film investments continues to increase, and the competitive structure continues to improve. From the channel perspective, 1) The concentration of the Top 10 cinema companies has shown a decreasing trend, from 69.72% in 2019 to 64.14% in 2024; among them, the market share of Top 1 Wanda Cinema has increased year by year, from 12.9% in 2019 to 15.4% in 2024; 2) The concentration of film investment companies continues to increase, from 18.13% in 2019 to 31.19% in 2024; 3) Overall, there is a continuous clearance of exhibition channels and an improvement in market concentration. Looking ahead to 2024: The quality of content supply is expected to improve, and the film industry is more optimistic. 1) Considering the supply cycles of domestic and Hollywood films, under strong demand release, this year China Film Co., Ltd.'s box office is expected to surpass the level of 64.2 billion yuan in 2019, reaching a new historical high. At the same time, benefiting from the characteristics of high operating leverage, exhibition channels are expected to usher in a period of better profit release; 2) In the short term, more than 100,000 people are interested in watching 14 movies after the Spring Festival, two imported films and the canceled film "We Dance in the Sun" will be released, and the film market is expected to continue the enthusiasm of the Spring Festival, with exhibition channels and production companies expected to continue to benefit. Risk warning: Recurring epidemic; policy regulation risks; insufficient content supply; intensified market competition.