Tianfeng: Mass production of silicon-carbon negative electrodes is imminent, helping battery cells to break through the constraints of energy density.

Tianfeng released a research report stating that in the silicon-carbon negative electrode industry chain, the leading fluidized bed equipment manufacturer, Suzhou Neumte, is not yet listed. The raw material, silane product, has no difference from other application areas and mainly depends on the supply and demand of silane itself. It is expected that with the large-scale expansion in 2024-2025, the imbalance between supply and demand of silane is expected to be alleviated. The investment opportunities lie in the step from 0 to 1 in the porous carbon link, which has a significant impact on the performance of silicon-carbon pure products. The key points of Tianfeng are as follows: 1. Why focus on silicon-carbon negative electrodes at the current node? - From the industrial background perspective: After 24 years of R&D, the focus of the industry chain is shifting from cost reduction to efficiency improvement in 2023. The next generation of high-energy density battery cells, represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology's solid-state battery cell, has silicon-carbon negative electrodes as the standard, continuing to solidify its global leading position in battery cells. - From the perspective of application necessity: Silicon-carbon negative electrodes themselves are a breakthrough point to solve the energy density limitations. Existing graphite materials have a specific heat capacity of up to 365mAh/g, close to the limit of 372mAh/g, while silicon materials have a theoretical specific heat capacity of over 4000mAh/g, with a single cell energy density of up to 843Wh/kg. - From the perspective of the industry chain progress: Silicon-carbon electrode manufacturers have broken through many bottlenecks, with leading manufacturers addressing issues such as expansion rate, gradually industrializing in 2023-2024. 2. Choice of technical route? Silicon-oxygen is mature but has a low upper limit. The gas phase deposition method of silicon-carbon negative electrodes is the long-term direction for battery manufacturers. Silicon-based electrode products are currently dominated by silicon-oxygen, with the limitations of silicon-oxygen electrodes being the initial efficiency and energy density (the upper limit of gram capacity is relatively low). Efforts to improve energy density in the medium to long term encourage material manufacturers to develop silicon-carbon negative electrodes, especially using gas phase deposition. The CVD method generates composite materials with better consistency, lower expansion rate, and significantly improved cycling performance. Leading companies like Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology, Betteray, Shinghwa Advanced Material Group, and Tianmu are key players in developing CVD silicon-carbon technology. 3. Gas-phase deposition silicon-carbon negative electrode industry chain - Equipment process: Rotary kilns have poor airtightness and low silane utilization rates. With the maturation of fluidized bed equipment, fluidized bed methods have become a common choice. - Rotary kilns: Silane is prone to self-ignition and explosion during deposition in rotary kilns, and the low silane utilization rate due to solid precipitation from combustion leads to higher production costs for silicon-carbon products. - Fluidized bed: Provides better contact between reactant particles and gas phase, with excellent coating uniformity and high purity. The advantages of fluidized beds include: 1) Cost control: High silane utilization reduces raw material consumption; 2) Feasibility: Fluidized bed equipment meets high air tightness and pressure requirements, improving safety; 3) Product performance: Fluidized beds offer high specific capacity, initial efficiency, cycle stability, rate performance, etc. - Core material - Porous Carbon: A new material from 0-1, difficult to mass produce, specialized porous carbon companies offer technology/cost advantages. Porous carbon is a key material that is highly compatible with silicon-carbon negative electrodes, starting from scratch as a new material. Porous carbon plays a crucial role in the performance of silicon-carbon negative electrodes, with high requirements for the quality of porous carbon in silicon-carbon electrodes. Professional porous carbon manufacturers have advantages in material selection, processing, cost reduction, energy consumption, and scale effects. - Core material - Silane gas: A unique market with strong supply and demand dynamics, creating demand space for new applications of silicon-carbon. Looking at the competitive landscape, companies like Silane Technology, Xingyang Technology, and Zhongning Silicon Industry dominate the market in the recent 1-2 years, while comprehensive gas companies like Hubei Heyuan Gas Co., Ltd. are expected to play a significant role in market competition. In terms of supply and demand structure, there is a significant demand gap in 2023, with prices at a high level. Starting in 2024, with the large-scale release of production capacity, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. 4. Investment advice In the silicon-carbon negative electrode industry chain, the leading fluidized bed equipment manufacturer Suzhou Neumte is not yet listed. The raw material, silane products, do not have a difference from other application areas but mainly depend on the supply and demand dynamics of silane itself. It is expected that with the large-scale expansion in 2024-2025, the imbalance between supply and demand of silane can be alleviated. The investment opportunities lie in the step from 0 to 1 in the porous carbon link. Key focus-Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon: Empowering growth in granular charcoal as a substitute for coal-based charcoal, with the momentum in new energy carbon materials trending upwards. - Traditional main business: Dominant in the domestic activated carbon sector, granular charcoal opens up growth space in the main business: Powdery activated carbon accounts for 30% of the domestic market share, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons far exceeding domestic competitors (usually under 20,000 tons). Substitution of granular charcoal: 1) Short-term substitution for coal-based charcoal; 2) Medium-term expansion of activated carbon overseas; 3) Long-term increase in demand for domestic wood charcoal. - New business in porous carbon: With technical advantages and cost advantages after mass production, the company is expected to lead in the field of porous carbon. Risk Warning: Unexpected underperformance of new technologies, changes in supply and demand dynamics beyond expectations, subjectivity in calculations, fluctuation risks in major raw material prices, and risks related to safety production.