TrendForce: Estimated shipment of LCD TV panels in the first quarter is around 55.8 million pieces, and it is expected to increase in the second quarter.

According to the latest research from TrendForce, with proper control of panel factory capacity utilization rates, TV panel inventory has returned to a healthy low level at the beginning of 2024. The psychological factors of expected price increases, as well as stocking up for holidays and sporting events, combined with the prolongation of shipping times and rising freight rates due to the conflict in the Red Sea, have led to a noticeable resurgence in demand since January. Therefore, TrendForce estimates that the shipment volume of LCD TV panels in the first quarter will reach 55.8 million pieces, a quarterly increase of 5.3%. In terms of TV panel prices, affected by the Chinese New Year in the first quarter, panel factories have reduced production in February to lower production costs, coupled with the traditional off-season, resulting in panel supply being relatively concentrated in January and March, further driving up prices for medium and small-sized TV panels starting in January. TrendForce predicts that TV panel prices are expected to continue to rise in the second quarter, allowing panel factories to increase production willingness, with shipments expected to rise to 61.5 million pieces, a quarterly increase of 10.5%. In terms of demand, the 618 promotion in April and May will benefit, supported by stocking up for the French Olympics, but customer stocking attitudes in June may become more conservative, waiting for actual sales at the end, making June an important observation point for changes in TV panel prices. In the second half of the year, panel factories may face a battle to balance volume and price. While the atmosphere in the TV panel market improved in the first half of 2024, global economic recovery is slow, and increasing geopolitical risks may bring uncertainty to the demand for TV panels in the second half of the year. Compared to the IT panel market which is in a state of supply and demand imbalance, the TV panel supply and demand is relatively stable and profitable, making the performance of panel factories in the second half of the year extremely important. According to TrendForce, the shipment targets set by panel factories have increased by 6.7% compared to 2023, indicating that even after products become profitable, panel factories still hope to actively ship. It is worth noting that if the demand in the second half of the year again suffers from the unpredictable and changing global situation, panel factories will have to weigh between volume and price. In addition, compared to last year, the supply has returned to a relatively balanced state, but with the restart of LG Display's Guangzhou factory in 2024, if demand for TV panels slows down in the second half of the year, it may bring unfavorable price trends to the market supply side.