Middle Finger Research Institute: The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in January-February was 476.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%.

On February 29, the China Real Estate Institute released the sales performance rankings of Chinese real estate enterprises for January and February 2024. The data shows that in January and February 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 476.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. Among them, the single-month sales of the top 100 real estate companies in February decreased by 29.3% compared to the previous month, mainly due to a partial rebound in the spring housing market in 2023, resulting in a higher sales base. There were 14 real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 12 compared to the same period last year; there were 8 real estate companies with sales exceeding 5 billion yuan, a decrease of 18 compared to the same period last year. The equity sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 319.58 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 19.914 million square meters. Performance: The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 476.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. In January and February 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 476.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. Among them, the single-month sales of the top 100 real estate companies in February decreased by 29.3% compared to the previous month, mainly due to a partial rebound in the spring housing market in 2023, resulting in a higher sales base. There were 14 real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 12 compared to the same period last year; there were 8 real estate companies with sales exceeding 5 billion yuan, a decrease of 18 compared to the same period last year. The equity sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 319.58 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 19.914 million square meters. Data Source: China Real Estate Information System (CREIS) Note: The sales mentioned in the analysis, unless otherwise specified, refer to total sales. In January and February 2024, sales of real estate companies in all categories declined. Specifically, the average sales of the top 10 real estate companies were 21.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.7% compared to the previous year; the average sales of the top 11-30 real estate companies were 6.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.5% compared to the previous year; the average sales of the top 31-50 real estate companies were 3.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 52% compared to the previous year; the average sales of the top 51-100 real estate companies were 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.6%. Data Source: China Real Estate Information System (CREIS) Number of Camps: The fourth camp has increased significantly, with a decrease of 12 companies in the billion-dollar camp. In January and February 2024, the number of companies in different camps changed. Specifically, there were 14 companies in the billion-dollar camp, a decrease of 12 compared to the same period last year, with an average sales of 18.16 billion yuan. There were 8 companies in the second camp (50-100 billion), a decrease of 18 compared to the same period last year, with an average sales of 6.55 billion yuan. There were 19 companies in the third camp (30-50 billion), a decrease of 3 compared to the same period last year, with an average sales of 4.08 billion yuan. There were 59 companies in the fourth camp (below 30 billion), an increase of 33 compared to the same period last year, with an average sales of 1.56 billion yuan. Table: Number of Companies and Average Sales in each Camp of the Top 100 Real Estate Companies in January and February 2024 Data Source: China Real Estate Information System (CREIS) Chinese New Year Real Estate Market "Optimistic for Viewing, Less Buying", Real Estate Companies' Promotions Difficult to Change Buyers' Wait-and-See Attitude Real estate companies seized the Chinese New Year marketing opportunities through various channels, and the visitation rates in some cities increased, but transactions remained relatively flat, with a strong wait-and-see attitude among buyers. Since the end of January, core first and second-tier cities have successively optimized real estate policies, with policy measures continuously strengthening. The 2024 Chinese New Year holiday is an important period for observing the effects of new policies. Real estate companies in various regions had already launched promotional activities before the holiday, with many projects remaining open during the Chinese New Year and utilizing various marketing strategies to seize the holiday opportunity. In terms of market conditions, the visitation rates at sales offices in some cities increased during the Chinese New Year period, but actual transactions remained relatively flat. According to data from the China Real Estate Information System, during the 2024 Chinese New Year holiday period (February 10-17), the average daily transaction area of new homes in 25 representative cities decreased by approximately 27% compared to the previous Chinese New Year holiday period (January 21-27, 2023). Table: Marketing Conditions in Some Representative Cities during the 2024 Chinese New Year Period Data Source: China Real Estate Information System (CREIS) Weak demand due to uncertain income and market expectations has led to a sluggish demand side, making it difficult for real estate companies' promotional activities to change buyers' wait-and-see attitudes. Firstly, the impact of the epidemic in 2022 temporarily suppressed some demand, leading to a partial rebound in the spring housing market in 2023, resulting in a higher sales base. Secondly, uncertain income and market expectations have led to a soft demand side, and real estate companies' promotional activities can only increase the number of visitors in some cities, without substantially changing buyers' wait-and-see attitudes. Thirdly, during the 2024 Chinese New Year period, local governments have intensified support for the tourism industry, leading to a significant increase in the number of people returning home or traveling, delaying housing purchase plans, with only some hotspots and cities driven by returning home purchases performing well. Outlook: Market enters the traditional "Golden March, Silver April" period, with the effects of core city policies expected to further manifest On the policy front, regulatory authorities continue to release measures to stabilize the market. On February 20, the central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the 5-year LPR, from 4.2% to 3.95%, the largest single reduction since the anchor change in 2019. This asymmetric interest rate cut reflects the central bank's support for the real estate industry, enhancing support for the housing market and sending a more positive signal to stabilize industry confidence. On the same day, the Ministry of housing and urban-rural development held a video conference to coordinate the financing mechanism for urban real estate, reporting that as of February 20, 29 provinces and 214 cities had established real estate financing coordination mechanisms, involving a total of 5349 projects; 57 cities and 162 projects had received bank financing totaling 29.43 billion yuan. The implementation of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms is conducive to promoting project construction, alleviating the financial pressure on real estate companies, and improving consumer expectations. In addition, on February 27, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Regulations on Housing Development".Notice on the Planning and Annual Plan Formulation of the Exhibition clearly pointed out that the housing development plan and annual plan are important levers for establishing the linkage mechanism of the "people, houses, land, and money" elements. Each region should determine housing demand based on population changes, scientifically arrange land supply according to housing demand, guide the allocation of financial resources, and realize housing determined by people, land determined by housing, and money determined by housing, promote the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market, and reasonable structure, and prevent market fluctuations. The reform of the land management system is steadily advancing, and the acceleration of the linkage mechanism of the "people, houses, land, and money" elements will further strengthen the resource aggregation effect in advantageous areas.At the local level, in February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the frequency of policy releases in various regions decreased. Before the Spring Festival, Beijing and Shenzhen successively optimized their purchase restriction policies. Beijing optimized the "dual restriction" policy in Tongzhou District, while Shenzhen eliminated the requirement for social security years for families who have already settled in to purchase a house, and shortened the requirement for non-local household to have continuous social security/tax payment from 5 years to 3 years. Xiamen, Shenyang, Jinan, and other cities further optimized the housing provident fund loan policies. In the short term, with the upcoming National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference meetings, it is expected that more favorable policies will be announced to balance supply and demand. It is expected that first-tier cities may further optimize their restrictive policies based on demand and area, while second-tier cities may completely lift their purchase restriction policies. From the market point of view, the market is approaching the traditional peak sales season in March and April. The effects of the core city policies that were implemented earlier are expected to be further demonstrated, but the high base effect from last year is gradually becoming more prominent. In March, whether in terms of new or second-hand housing transactions, the year-on-year performance may be weaker, and the "small spring" market trend may only appear in some core cities.