The end of the war is still not useful? Industry insiders say that it may take several months for oil production to fully restart in the Middle East, and high oil prices may persist until next year.

As the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to impact the global energy system, the market's expectation for the time of supply recovery is further prolonged. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation stated that even if the Iran war ends, it will still take several months for the Gulf region's crude oil production to fully recover, which means that high oil prices may be sustained for a longer period. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah stated that due to the closure of a large number of oil wells during the conflict, it will take "several months" for Gulf countries to restore their full production capacity. He pointed out that currently, over 6 million barrels per day of production in the region have been shut down, and the actual impact scale may be even larger. The lag in supply recovery means that the fall in oil prices will also be delayed. Currently, the benchmark oil prices in the US and Europe are maintained at around $100 per barrel, while spot oil prices in the Middle East have risen to over $180, significantly intensifying regional price differentials. Analysts believe that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core factor of the current energy shock. The strait normally accounts for about 20% of global oil and gas shipments, but with Iran restricting passage through threats and military actions, the global energy supply chain has been seriously disrupted. Al-Sabah bluntly stated that alternative routes through pipelines or the use of strategic oil reserves "can't even be considered as temporary substitutes." Currently, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are bypassing the strait to transport some of the crude oil through pipelines, while the US and other countries are releasing strategic reserves to offset the supply gap. However, analysis by JPMorgan shows that these measures can only make up for about 20% of the supply losses, far from enough to restore normal circulation. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, also emphasized that the current issue is "not a supply problem, but a security problem," and the only long-term solution is to restore maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that "this crisis cannot be resolved through trade means." Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are still escalating. US President Trump has said that negotiations with Iran have begun, but Iran has denied this, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. Former US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis warned that if the conflict over control of the strait cannot be resolved, Iran may turn it into a "toll road," charging passing oil tankers, which would have a long-term impact on the global energy market. Industry insiders generally believe that the economic impact of the current shock has not yet fully manifested, and even if the conflict ends, its effects may continue into next year or longer. Energy consulting firms predict that international oil prices will average around $95 per barrel in 2026, and may rise to $100 per barrel in 2027. Furthermore, some industry executives point out that the current international oil prices have not fully reflected the extent of actual supply shrinkage. If the conflict cannot be quickly resolved, oil prices in European and American markets may approach the high price levels in the Middle East, and the global energy price system may face a repricing.