Short-term exemptions are difficult to resolve due to compliance concerns: Russian oil demand is picking up, while Iranian oil is being neglected.

At the beginning of this month, the Trump administration temporarily lifted import restrictions on Russian and Iranian oil in response to the energy price spike caused by the Middle East war. However, due to the short waiver period and persistent compliance risks, oil trade volume not only did not return to normal levels, but also showed a significant contrast in implementation effectiveness: buyers are eagerly buying Russian crude oil, but are more cautious towards Iranian crude oil. What's more troublesome is that this move by the US has also angered a number of allies - they are worried that the economic pressure on Russia and Iran will loosen, leaving both sides empty-handed in the end. The spark of this energy crisis originated from the comprehensive escalation of the Middle East situation, especially the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which poses a risk of interrupting the global daily supply of millions of barrels of oil. Faced with an imminent supply gap, the Trump administration adopted a pragmatic intervention strategy, officially issuing a 30-day temporary waiver for seaborne Russian crude oil on March 12. This policy allows global buyers (excluding certain sanctioned areas) to receive and pay for Russian oil tankers already loaded at sea without violating sanctions. This measure quickly activated the market. Data shows that about 18 oil tankers in the region east of the Suez Canal are carrying approximately 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil, which may be available for purchase. This number has decreased compared to two weeks ago when the scope of exemptions was expanded - at that time there were 25 oil tankers carrying about 19 million barrels of crude oil. Although more goods are entering the region through the Suez Canal, the number of oil tankers is still decreasing. Most oil tankers are showing a "for sale" status, indicating that they have not yet found a fixed buyer. One oil tanker's destination is shown near Singapore, a common crude oil sale hub. Seven oil tankers are carrying the flagship Ural crude oil from Russia, which is similar in quality to most of the crude oil affected by the war in the Middle East. In comparison, the market situation for Iranian crude oil appears much quieter. Since Iran received waivers last Friday, the volume of crude oil in its offshore floating storage has remained at around 27 million barrels. State-owned enterprises in countries like India have temporarily postponed purchases due to issues such as payments, insurance, and finding compliant vessels. It is reported that offshore floating storage usually refers to oil tankers idling at sea for at least a week, and the scale can serve as an indicator of crude oil supply, but does not include en route tankers that may be carrying unsold goods. Market analysts state that this differentiated response is mainly due to long-term buyer fears of the complexity of Iranian sanctions. Unlike Russia, which still has alternative solutions in banking settlement and insurance, the payment mechanism and vessel tracking risks of Iranian crude oil make compliance departments hesitate. Many international banks and insurers worry that the 30-day window is not enough to complete complex transaction compliance checks, and fear the retrospective sanction pressure that may come after the waiver expires, directly leading to Iranian vessels continuing to drift at sea. Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore consulting firm Vanda Insights, said, "I expect that under US waivers, countries will be more hesitant to purchase Iranian crude oil than Russian crude oil. Iranian crude oil may have quality issues and there are also questions about payment mechanisms, while Russian crude oil does not have these problems."