The issuance structure lays the groundwork: Behind the first day net outflow of over 80 million Hong Kong dollars for HASHKEY HLDGS (03887)

On December 17, HASHKEY HLDGS (03887) was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The stock initially surged to around 6.6% in the morning session, but then faced significant selling pressure, causing the stock price to quickly fall back and maintain a volatile downward trend throughout the day. As of the time of writing, the stock price was at HK$6.46, a 3.3% drop from the IPO price of HK$6.68, with a total market value of approximately HK$17.86 billion. In contrast, several recent IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market have performed exceptionally well on their first day of listing. For example, GUOXIA TECH soared by 117.91% on its first day, while BAO PHARMA-B surged by 138.82%; SEYOND, ABLE DIGITAL, and others also had impressive first-day performances. HASHKEY HLDGS' listing day showed a pattern of "high opening and low closing, capital outflow," reflecting the cautious attitude of the market towards its valuation and prospects in the current macroeconomic and industry environment. Market pulse: From emotional impulses to a return to value Observing the first day of listing of HASHKEY HLDGS on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it staged a classic new stock "pricing game". The stock's high opening and subsequent decline, with a net outflow of over HK$79.66 million in funds, revealed a divergence in cognition and behavior between institutions and retail investors. The rapid rise of around 6.6% in the morning session can be seen as an inertia reaction of new funds and short-term speculative traders to the listing event. However, the rapid reversal of the uptrend and the increased volume of selling signaled a quick transition to a rational evaluation stage in the market. A key point occurred at 10:04, when the stock price broke through the intraday moving average with a surge in trading volume to HK$77.02 million. Such concentrated massive trading volume during a decline is often a clear signal of selling pressure release. It indicates that not only was there active selling pressure when the stock price declined, but also a significant amount of funds were stepping in, reflecting a fierce disagreement between long and short positions, with the short side temporarily dominating the direction. The transaction price of HK$6.45 is significantly lower than the intraday average of HK$6.83 and a 3.44% drop from the IPO price. This confirmed that after the brief high opening, the stock price quickly fell below the average line and entered a downtrend channel, trapping many early morning speculative investors. In summary, the technical signal of "volume break" is highly indicative, not only reflecting the concentration of profit-taking, but also indicating that the optimistic expectations that initially supported the stock price were proven wrong. The bearish forces gained dominance in the game, setting a weak tone for the day's trend. Analysis of Funds: Structural differentiation between institutions exiting and retail investors stepping in The total net outflow of over HK$800 million throughout the day has structural features that are more noteworthy than the total amount. By 14:27, the fund flow structure of HASHKEY HLDGS became clearer, showing a typical differentiation pattern with institutional funds significantly flowing out and retail funds contrarily stepping in. The mega block net outflow was HK$79.237 million, accounting for over 99% of the total net outflow, indicating that institutions and large investors collectively reduced their holdings on the first day of listing. The large block net outflow was HK$2.3805 million, following the direction of the mega block, further confirming the cautious attitude of main funds. The medium block net outflow was HK$2.1211 million, in line with the direction of the main funds. The small block net inflow was HK$4.078 million, reflecting that some retail investors were counter-positioning during the stock price pullback, taking on a liquidity absorption role. The structural differentiation of funds clearly points to the "smart money" represented by institutional investors, cornerstone shareholders, and professional large investors decisively and collectively reducing their holdings on the first day of listing. The logic behind this behavior may include: believing that the offering price already fully or even excessively reflected expectations; risk aversion to the global regulatory uncertainties facing the digital asset-related industry; or executing more conservative liquidity management strategies in the context of tight market conditions. At the same time, the net inflow of about HK$4.08 million from small block funds formed a distinct contrast. This reflects that some retail investors viewed the stock price pullback as an opportunity to "buy low". Although this retail investor counter-directional absorption behavior provided necessary liquidity and eased the downward trend in the short term, it also resulted in a shift of chips from the firm and information-sensitive institutional side to the dispersed and more emotion-driven retail side. This change in chip structure typically increases the volatility of the stock price. Differentiated IPO heat early predicts future pressure? HASHKEY HLDGS issued approximately 241 million shares in this listing, with the Hong Kong public offering portion accounting for only 10% (about 24.0572 million shares). The offering price was set at HK$6.68 per share, raising a net amount of approximately HK$1.479 billion. From the offering structure to the distribution of equity, there is an inherent logical correspondence between these arrangements and the performance of the first day of listing of "high opening and low closing, institutional outflow". Although the Hong Kong public offering received about 394 times oversubscription, compared to the easily thousands of times oversubscription for some recent hot new stocks, this number reflects a relatively rational enthusiasm among retail investors for subscribing. More importantly, the international offering section received only about 5.46 times oversubscription, and the final allocation reached as high as 90%. This indicates that international institutional investors were already cautious during the pricing stage, to some extent laying the foundation for the rapid outflow of institutional funds after listing. The offering attracted well-known institutions such as UBS Asset Management, Fidelity, and DHVC, as cornerstone investors, presenting an impressive lineup. While this endorsement provided support for the offering, cornerstone shares usually have lock-up periods and do not enter the secondary market circulation in the short term. At the same time, the ownership of the company is highly concentrated - with the largest shareholder holding nearly 60% of the shares post-listing, and the top 25 shareholders collectively holding over 95% of the shares. While this is beneficial for the stability of the company's governance structure, it also means that the proportion of shares freely circulating in the secondary market is very low. A small float may exacerbate stock price volatility and make the entry and exit of large funds easier to have a significant impact on the market, consistent with the phenomenon of a large net outflow dominated by mega blocks on the first day. In conclusion, due to the lock-up or high concentration of a large portion of circulating shares, the selling behavior of a small amount of institutional funds can easily exert significant pressure on the stock price, explaining why the net outflow on the first day seemed small but was sufficient to suppress the day's trend. In addition, the final offering price was set at the lower end of the range and the oversubscription multiplier for the international offering was flat, indicating limited acceptance by international institutions. The trend on the first day can be seen as a continuation and publicization of this attitude. Based on a comprehensive analysis of HASHKEY HLDGS' performance on the first day of listing, the essence of its stock price trend is the replacement of emotional catalysts with rational pricing, while the fund flow reveals significant differences in risk preferences and investment logic between different types of funds. The shift of chips from institutions selling to retail investors buying may increase the volatility of the stock price in the future. Additionally, the offering structure and concentration of equity enhance the market game effect. Whether the company can meet growth expectations and effectively manage industry policy risks will be key to reversing fund flows and rebuilding valuation consensus.