Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, the market awaits calmly the evaluation of economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts.

1. Before the US stock market on Tuesday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 0.08%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.25%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.04%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.16%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.11%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.42% to $58.67 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.33% to $62.51 per barrel. Market News The market is focused on assessing the expectations of a rate cut based on US economic data. After tech stocks drove the S&P 500 index higher on Monday, US stock index futures fell on Tuesday, with traders focusing on a series of economic data to evaluate whether the market's optimistic sentiment about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve can continue. Traders are closely watching US economic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, including retail sales and producer price index for September, which are expected to be released later on Tuesday. Despite being somewhat lagging due to the pandemic, these data reports remain significant before the Fed meeting next month as there is a lack of new data. Analysts believe, "Market reactions may be larger than usual and likely to impact market sentiment for the Fed's December meeting." US 'horror data' in September may confirm peak consumer spending, making a rate cut by the Fed inevitable? At 9:30pm Beijing time on Tuesday evening, the US Census Bureau will release the so-called 'horror data' of US retail sales for September, which has been delayed for over a month due to a government shutdown, and is expected to show a slight slowdown in consumer spending in September. This may indicate that US households may have reached their spending limit after months of inflationary pressure. Additionally, the risk of a cooling in consumer spending remains as many employers are scaling back hiring. Economists expect September retail sales to grow by 0.4%, compared to a 0.6% increase the previous month. This slight dip could be an initial signal of more sustained consumer pullback following robust summer spending. Economists say that with increasing financial pressures, the strong momentum in consumer spending is unlikely to continue. Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Soft job data could force the Fed's hand, bullish on small caps and consumer sectors recovery. Despite recent market corrections, especially impacting high momentum and high beta growth stocks, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson believes the current weakness may signal better prospects in the medium term. In a report, he stated, "We believe the internal market weakness is a signal that we are closer to the end of this correction cycle rather than the beginning," and recommends investors to view this reset in expectations as an opportunity to position for a potential recovery. The strategist also pointed out that alternative labor market data for October shows further signs of weakness, with indicators such as the ADP report, Challenger layoff data, and continuing jobless claims pointing to a weakening job market. San Francisco Fed Chair: Worried about sudden deterioration in the job market, supports Fed rate cut in December. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said she supports a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, citing a higher likelihood of a sudden deterioration in the job market compared to a sharp rise in inflation, which would be more difficult to address. In an interview with the media on Monday, she pointed out that the labor market is now very fragile, with "risks of non-linear changes" and uncertainty about authorities' ability to respond in advance. In contrast, the risk of an inflation outbreak is lower, as the increase in cost due to tariffs is lower than earlier anticipated this year. Analysts view Daly's remarks as significant, as she rarely deviates from Fed Chair Powell's stance in public settings. Daly will not have voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) until 2027. Trump launches the "Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Plan" to promote scientific innovation with AI. On November 24th, the White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to launch a new national program called the "Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Plan" aimed at transforming the way scientific research is conducted with artificial intelligence (AI) and accelerating scientific discovery. The order instructs the Department of Energy to create an AI experimental platform, integrate US supercomputers and unique data assets to generate scientific foundational models, and support the Siasun Robot & Automation laboratory. The order also directs the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to coordinate this national program and integrate data and infrastructure from various federal government departments. The Secretary of Energy, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and the Special Advisor on AI and Cryptographic Technology will collaborate with innovators from academia and the private sector to support and strengthen the "Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Plan." Renowned short seller Burry returns to the scene with sharp criticism of the AI bubble: NVIDIA is the Cisco of today. Michael Burry, known for accurately shorting the US subprime mortgage crisis and the inspiration behind the movie "The Big Short," has returned to the spotlight on November 24th. This investor, who has always been skeptical of the current artificial intelligence (AI) hype, has officially launched his financial Substack newsletter focusing on the financial market. He once again takes aim at the center of this current hype - NVIDIA Corporation. Stock News Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR surpasses revenue expectations for the second quarter, with Cloud Intelligence Group revenue growing by 34%. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR reported revenue of 247.795 billion RMB for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 5% year-on-year, beating market expectations of 2,452.03 billion RMB; adjusted net profit was 10.352 billion RMB, a 72% year-on-year decrease, below market expectations of 16.803 billion RMB; Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 20.99 billion RMB, a 52% year-on-year decrease; Net cash flow from operating activities was 30.771 billion RMB, a 53% year-on-year decrease; Free cash flow was 40.655 billion RMB, compared to 31.107 billion RMB in the same period last year. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR stated that the AI+cloud and consumer core businesses continued to achieve strong growth this quarter. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was 39.824 billion RMB, up 34% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters; market expectations were 37.989 billion RMB. Tuya, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A announces third quarter performance, with net profit of $14.972 million, turning from loss to profit year-on-year. Tuya, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A reported total revenue of $82.5 million for the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.1%; overall gross profit margin was 48.3%, up by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit margin was 4.6%, an improvement of 25.6 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit was $14.972 million, turning from a loss to a profit year-on-year; basic and diluted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) were $0.02. NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A releases third quarter financial report, with record high comprehensive gross profit margin and significantly enhanced product and service profitability. NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A delivered 87,071 vehicles in the third quarter, up 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% sequentially, reaching a historical high. Revenue for the third quarter was 21.79 billion RMB, up 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% sequentially, also hitting a historical high. The comprehensive gross profit margin for the third quarter was 13.9%, a near three-year high, with significantly enhanced product and service profitability. The vehicle gross profit margin for the third quarter was 14.7%, setting a near three-year high. cash reserve was 36.7 billion RMB, with a significant increase from the previous quarter, achieving positive operating cash flow and free cash flow. Delivery guidance for the fourth quarter is 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, up 65.1% to 72.0% year-on-year, reaching a historical high. Revenue guidance is 32.76 billion to 34.04 billion RMB, up 66.3% to 72.8% year-on-year, achieving a historical high. Baozun, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A releases third quarter performance, with total net revenue of 2.156 billion RMB, up 4.82% year-on-year. Baozun, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A reported total net revenue of 2.156 billion RMB in the third quarter, a 4.82% year-on-year increase; net loss attributable to Baozun, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A ordinary shareholders was 107 million RMB, a 21.61% increase year-on-year; basic loss per share attributable to Baozun, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A ordinary shareholders was 0.62 RMB. Broadcom Inc. soars more than 11% in a single day! Becomes a derivative investment target in the race against NVIDIA Corporation. Broadcom Inc. saw a strong gain of 11.1% in stock price on Monday, making it the best performing component stock in the S&P 500 index for the day, as investors turned their attention back to popular tech companies involved in AI-related transactions. Wall Street is also taking note of this chip maker, seeing it as a derivative investment target in the growing dominance of Alphabet Inc. Class C in the AI field. As one of the largest providers of high-performance application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyper-scale computing companies, Broadcom Inc. has been performing strongly this year with its stock price up by 60% year-to-date. Monday's rise marks the stock's best single-day performance since April 9th. The stock is also the best-performing component stock in the Technology Select Sector SPDR fund (XLK) tracking the S&P 500 technology sector. Amazon.com, Inc. boosts AI computing power: Invests $50 billion to build 1.3GW data center capacity for the US government. Amazon.com, Inc. announced plans to invest up to $50 billion in expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government agencies. AWS, Amazon.com, Inc.'s cloud services division, stated in a blog post on Monday its intentions to start construction next year on a total of 1.3GW of additional data center capacity dedicated to serving US federal agencies. AWS is the world's largest provider of leased computing resources and offers services to US government clients from dedicated facilities that meet strict security standards covering data processing, isolation for commercial projects, and employee nationality issues. Meta rumored to invest billions in Alphabet Inc. Class C's TPU, challenging NVIDIA's dominance. Alphabet Inc. Class C is substantially enhancing its competition with NVIDIA Corporation in the AI chip race, and Meta is poised to become a potential multi-billion dollar customer. For years, Alphabet Inc. Class C has restricted the use of its custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to its own cloud data centers, rented out to companies running large AI workloads. However, Alphabet Inc. Class C is now marketing these chips for deployment within customers' own data centers, marking a significant shift in its strategy. One of these customers is Meta. Reports suggest that Meta is in discussions to invest billions of dollars to integrate Alphabet Inc. Class C's TPUs into its data centers starting from 2027, while also planning to use TPUs from Alphabet Inc. Class C's cloud as early as next year. As of the time of writing, NVIDIA Corporation fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading, to $175.25; Alphabet Inc. Class C rose over 4% in pre-market trading, to $331.58. Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events 9:30pm Beijing time: US PPI YoY for September (%), US Retail Sales MoM for September (%). 11:00pm Beijing time: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November, US Pending Home Sales Index MoM for October (%). 05:30am the next day: US API Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending November 21 (thousand barrels). Earnings Preview Early Wednesday: Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C (DELL.US), HP Inc. (HPQ.US), NOAH HOLDINGS (NOAH.US) Pre-market Wednesday: Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US), EHang Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (EH.US), Gaotu Techedu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (GOTU.US)