A new era of the AI super cycle is opening. HSBC predicts that OpenAI may require up to $207 billion in new financing by 2030.

HSBC Global Investment Research's latest report states that, following an update to the forecast for OpenAI's computing power requirements and cloud rental costs, it is estimated that this artificial intelligence unicorn may require up to $207 billion in new financing by 2030. The research team, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, points out that OpenAI has recently significantly increased its long-term procurement agreements with cloud vendors, leading to a sharp increase in its funding needs. According to HSBC analysis, OpenAI has announced a $25 billion cloud computing procurement agreement with Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), and another $38 billion, seven-year cloud service procurement contract with Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US). Meanwhile, competitor Anthropic (backed by Amazon.com, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. Class C) is also rapidly expanding, having announced the acquisition of 1 million TPU AI chips from Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) worth "billions of dollars," and plans to invest $50 billion in infrastructure development. In addition, they have reached a $30 billion computing power commitment agreement with Microsoft Corporation and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), with estimated funding injections of up to $15 billion. The Cote-Colisson team states that, after reassessing OpenAI's computing expansion path and leasing costs, the conclusion is that they will still need an additional $207 billion in funding by 2030. Whether the financing gap can be narrowed depends on multiple unknown variables, including whether OpenAI can adjust procurement commitments according to actual needs, and whether they can alleviate the pressure through equity injections, debt financing, or significantly higher-than-expected revenues in the future. The report indicates that a new AI supercycle is beginning, and OpenAI is expected to bear $1.4 trillion in computing costs over the next eight years, which undoubtedly intensifies investors' concerns about their return on investment. Compared to estimated revenues of approximately $12.5 billion in 2025, the huge gap between costs and income also affects the risk assessment of the entire AI industry chain. However, analysts point out that the CEO of Microsoft Corporation has stated that the simultaneous advancement of AI model companies, infrastructure providers, and chip manufacturers will help enterprise customers achieve AI value faster. Therefore, even without considering AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), the potential for productivity enhancement brought by AI is still significant. Among the companies covered by HSBC, those most likely to be affected by the success or failure of OpenAI include Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), Microsoft Corporation, Amazon.com, Inc., NVIDIA Corporation, AMD (AMD.US), and SoftBank, which has a deep investment in AI.