BCS International: Hong Kong stocks are expected to trade in the range of 24300 to 27000 points before the end of the year.

In recent market, apart from the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble factor being focused on, profits taken advantage of at the end of the year and falling interest rate expectations have all led to the adjustment of the Hong Kong stock market. Zhang Haoen, investment manager of personal and commercial banking business at CITIC BANK (International), analyzed that historically, the Hong Kong stock market has often seen a "retreat before the end of the year." He pointed out that the Hang Seng Index has risen by over 35% at its peak this year, naturally leading some to take profits early. In addition, with the lack of a catalyst for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the US dollar stabilizing at high levels, these factors are restricting the upward trend of the index. Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market had already started to adjust at the beginning of October, and its trend is expected to be relatively stable compared to other global stock markets. It is anticipated that the market will trade sideways in the range of 24,300 to 27,000 points before the end of the year. Regarding the AI industry, Zhang Haoen mentioned that the performance of large chip stocks was ideal earlier, easing some market concerns, thus it may not necessarily lead to a bubble. He believed that the current valuation of the US stock market is relatively high, and a correction of about 5 to 10% at high levels is not considered significant. Valuation issues are likely to continue to affect the trend of the US stock market in the short term. As for the current bottleneck in the AI industry, it is the huge amount of electricity AI requires. Whether the electricity supply can support the future development of AI will become a key focus in the future. On the contrary, China has one of the lowest electricity costs among major countries, which will be beneficial for the future development of AI and may help to reassess the valuation of Chinese AI stocks. Zhang Haoen also mentioned that in the short term, due to the decreasing expectations of interest rate cuts and the absence of further factors for the US dollar to fall, it may continue to rise. In the absence of news to push down the US dollar in the short term, both Asian and Hong Kong stock markets may be affected.