Do not believe NVIDIA Corporation's financial report! "Big short" continues to bombard: AI giants extend GPU depreciation to artificially increase profits, real terminal demand is laughably low.
Michael Burry expressed doubts about Nvidia's third quarter performance on social media with his iconic bluntness, pointing out that Nvidia's most fervent supporters are completely ignoring the accounting and economic realities that will eventually be exposed.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) delivered a performance last week that would typically excite the market - its third-quarter revenue, profits, and outlook for the next quarter all significantly exceeded market expectations, and the company's CEO Jensen Huang also spoke out against the "AI bubble theory." However, just as investors were celebrating the temporary stability around AI trading, Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for "The Big Short" and founder of Scion Asset Management, once again criticized NVIDIA Corporation and the AI bubble.
Michael Burry took to social media with his characteristic blunt style to express doubts about NVIDIA Corporation's performance in the third quarter, pointing out that the company's most ardent supporters completely overlooked the accounting and economic realities that would eventually be exposed. He refuted NVIDIA Corporation's claim that extending the life of GPUs justifies a longer depreciation period, stating that conflating utilization with value creation will ultimately inflate profits. He wrote, "Just because something is used does not mean it is profitable." He gave an example of airlines keeping old airplanes to increase capacity during holiday seasons, but they are "barely profitable" and "not worth anything" in reality.
Michael Burry also warned that the actual end-user demand for AI is much lower than what major tech companies report. He posted a picture showing AI investment agreements among major tech giants like Microsoft Corporation, OpenAI, Oracle Corporation, and NVIDIA Corporation, accusing some companies of engaging in "questionable revenue recognition" practices, implying that the reported growth may not reflect real market demand. He believes that the "real end-user demand is laughably small," and "almost all customers' funds come from dealers," claiming that many customers driving AI growth are funded by companies selling AI technology to them - painting a picture of a self-reinforcing cycle rather than sustainable widespread application.
"The Big Short" remains bearish
This well-known hedge fund manager became a market legend for accurately predicting the 2008 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and making significant profits by shorting subprime mortgage bonds using credit default swaps. This bet brought him nearly $100 million in personal profit and earned his investors between $700 million to $725 million. In the industry, Michael Burry is renowned for his extremely contrarian investments, his ability to endure significant drawdowns, and eventually come out victorious after several years.
After years out of the public eye, Michael Burry returned to the spotlight in November of this year. He had previously warned several times about a bubble in tech valuations driven by AI in the U.S. stock market. He revealed short positions in NVIDIA Corporation and Palantir (PLTR.US), while also accusing major AI spenders of making inaccurate statements about the depreciation of their data center assets.
It's worth noting that recently, Michael Burry unexpectedly announced the "liquidation" of his fund, with his Scion Asset Management company deregistered from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Speculations suggest that Burry may be planning to convert Scion into a family office, a type of advisor that does not need to register with the SEC. He stated, "My sense of the value of securities is not in line with the current market situation, and this situation has been going on for a while."
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