China Securities Co., Ltd.: A-shares slow bull market pattern remains unchanged, short-term opportunities layout.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the current market is in a "three-phase superimposition": a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a crucial phase for economic validation and a period of policy vacuum for performance. Market volatility, rotation and fund profit-taking towards the end of the year are expected to amplify. Recent disturbances in the overseas environment have led to fluctuations in global market liquidity expectations, with concerns over the sustainability of AI spending affecting the sentiment in the A-share market. In the long term, the factors of the slow bull market remain unchanged; in the short term, the main focus is on strategic deployment, with a wait-and-see approach for the Federal Reserve meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in early to mid-December. Investors can consider adding positions during sufficient adjustments and monitor the market situation with attention to the 60-day and half-year support levels. The "three-phase superimposition" includes a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a crucial phase for economic validation, and a period of policy vacuum for performance. In its weekly report "Shanghai Index Breaks 4000 Points, How to Respond to Year-End?" released on November 2, China Securities Co., Ltd. warned that with the previous rising momentum in the A-share market exhausted, the concentration of three major positive factors at the end of October, the market faces pressure from declining sentiment, a vacuum period of positive news and a need for adjustment and consolidation. It is expected that there will be a new round of sideways adjustment in November, and investors are advised to pay attention to position control. In addition, with the current period of policy vacuum for performance, market volatility, rotation, and fund profit-taking towards the end of the year are expected to further amplify. The fluctuation of the December rate cut expectation of the Federal Reserve has led to volatility in global market liquidity expectations. A recent poll by YouGov showed that US President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, the lowest in his second term. The focus on inflation issues has increased in the market, which could lead to a shift in policy towards a more hawkish stance. Strong performance in the US non-farm payroll data on Thursday led to the probability of a Fed rate cut in December dropping to 39%. On Friday, New York Fed President Williams signaled a dovish stance, leading the market to bet on a rate cut again, with the probability of a December rate cut rebounding to 71%. Nvidia's financial report exceeded expectations, but the stock price experienced a huge shake, with investors expressing concerns about the sustainability of AI spending. Nvidia released its third-quarter financial report on Thursday, with strong financial performance exceeding market expectations. However, controversy over the AI bubble persists, with some market views suggesting overheating risks in AI infrastructure investments; geopolitical and market limitations may affect global market expansion. As a result, Nvidia's stock price opened high on Thursday, rising by around 5% at one point, but then continued to decline, ultimately closing down around 3%. In addition, with the current weak domestic economy lacking clear positive news, overseas concerns have spread to affect sentiment in the A-share market. The slow bull market pattern remains unchanged, with a focus on timing for short-term positioning in sectors with dividends and economic directions. The current bull market started with a shift in policy, focused on improving liquidity, while market risk preferences have also been boosted by various factors such as the breakthrough in technology industry prosperity and changes in the dynamic between the US and China. In the long term, the main factors of the slow bull market remain unchanged; in the short term, the focus is on strategic positioning, with a wait-and-see approach for the Federal Reserve meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in early to mid-December. During this period, if adjustments are sufficient, investors can consider adding positions and monitor the market with attention to the 60-day and half-year support levels and market consolidation conditions.