Ray Dalio: The market has gathered 80% of the bubble signals from 1929 and 2000, but do not blindly sell.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio believes that the current market has entered the bubble zone, warning that "we already have about 80% of the iconic conditions of the bubble periods of 1929 and 2000." In an interview, Dalio explains that despite these warning signals, investors "do not need to sell hastily." "There is definitely a bubble in the market," he defines a bubble as a state of "creating wealth in large quantities" through mechanisms such as overvaluation and excessive multiples. The billionaire hedge fund manager points out that the concentration of wealth and high leverage at present are typical characteristics of a bubble. Dalio emphasizes that timing is crucial in determining a bubble. "Don't just sell because there is a bubble," he warns, historical data shows that buying at similar high valuation levels and holding for ten years results in an average annual return of "between +2% and -2%." This experienced investor explains the mechanism of a bubble bursting: there must be a triggering event. "The bubble needs to be popped," he says, usually when investors "need cash" and are forced to sell assets, a real catalyst will be formed; monetary tightening often plays this role, but "we are not facing this situation now." Dalio analyzes that the current market's vulnerability comes from ownership structure and leverage. He divides funders into "strong hands" (company owners using their own funds) and "weak hands" (leveraged retail investors), concentrating assets on the latter significantly amplifies market vulnerability. He concludes, "We are in the bubble zone, but the bubble has not burst yet."