"Blond Girl" narrative to dominate the market again? NRF predicts record-breaking consumer army heading towards Thanksgiving shopping week.

A recent forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF) in the United States shows that the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend is expected to see a record number of shoppers. At a time when some Wall Street analysts are questioning the shrinking wallets of American consumers and expressing pessimism about the prospects of the US economy, the NRF quickly informed them that at least during this year's holiday shopping season, such pessimistic views are unlikely to hold true. The latest forecast report from the NRF points to another record-breaking Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping season, at a time when the US non-farm labor market is in a weak trajectory, and for the US Federal Reserve's much-desired "Goldilocks" soft landing of the US economy, the upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday could provide significant assistance to the US economy in the fourth quarter and even in 2026 - with consumer spending accounting for 60%-70% of the US GDP. The economic data for 2025 released before the government shutdown actually show a promising outlook, despite the weakness in the non-farm employment market. The combination of multiple consumer spending increases from January to August in 2025, as well as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) meeting expected curves and GDP upward revisions, have indeed increased the subjective probability of a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic scenario: that is, strong growth, not overly hot inflation, and market expectations leaning towards a low-interest rate trajectory. This is why prior strong US GDP data, retail sales data, and a recent better-than-expected consumer spending report, following a calm PCE announcement, have led to an increase in market expectations for a return to the Goldilocks macroeconomic environment for the US economy. The so-called "Goldilocks" style of the US macroeconomic environment refers to an economy that is neither too cold nor too hot, but just right, maintaining moderate growth in GDP and consumer spending and a long-term trend of moderate inflation, while benchmark interest rates move on a downward trajectory. In its latest US economic outlook report, Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley predicts that the US economy will gradually move out of the highly uncertain state in 2026 and back onto a positive trajectory of moderate growth. In line with the "Goldilocks" soft landing of the US economy is the incredibly strong performance of retail giant Walmart, which has raised its full-year performance guidance for two consecutive quarters. The financial report shows that Walmart's total revenue in Q3 increased by 5.8% year-on-year to $179.496 billion, exceeding market expectations of $177.57 billion. Among them, net sales increased by 5.8% year-on-year to $177.769 billion; membership and other revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year to $1.727 billion. Walmart currently expects full-year net sales for fiscal year 2026 to increase by 4.8%-5.1%, compared to the previous expectations of 3.75%-4.75%; it also expects adjusted operating profit to increase by 4.8%-5.5%; and adjusted earnings per share to be $2.58-2.63, compared to the previous range of $2.52-2.62. American Version of "Double Eleven Shopping Carnival" "Black Friday" usually signals the "informal start day" of the Christmas shopping season, and in the hours after this year's American Thanksgiving (November 27th), people often line up outside large retail stores or wait eagerly online to grab discounted items that go on sale after midnight or open their doors, thus kicking off the "Christmas shopping season" until the end of the year. On the internet, the "Black Friday" in Europe and America (this year on November 28th) is often compared by netizens to the "Double Eleven" shopping festival initiated by Chinese e-commerce platforms. In a recent consumer survey, NRF analysts predict that a record 186.9 million people will participate in shopping from American Thanksgiving Day to the "Cyber Monday" that young American office workers anticipate, exceeding last year's record by 3 million. "Black Friday" will remain the most popular day for shopping and bargain activities throughout the year, with 70% of NRF survey respondents (about 130.4 million people) expected to go shopping in force on the Friday after Thanksgiving, followed by "Cyber Monday" (about 40%). Forecasts suggest that on the relatively niche "Small Business Saturday," 36% of respondents will leave their homes, with the majority of American consumers citing their support for local small businesses as the reason. "Among consumers planning to use discounts, more than half say it's because the discounts are too good to pass up. Others mention it's part of American tradition or just that they like to kick off the holiday shopping frenzy during this long weekend," said Phil Rist, vice president of strategy at NRF's subsidiary Prosper Insights & Analytics. NRF predicts that American consumers will spend over $1 trillion during the Thanksgiving holiday shopping season, with payment methods including debit cards (44%), credit cards (27%), and cash (16%), and the average budget for expensive gifts and other seasonal items is $890 per person. This year, 59% of American shoppers are expected to follow the digital trend and use digital wallets and apps for shopping, which is consistent with recent years. This year, American families with children are expected to allocate an additional $33 on gifts, as shown by NRF surveys. Children's holiday wish lists often include Legos, Barbie dolls, and Hot Wheels toy cars. The most popular gift category this year is clothing and accessories, replacing consumer electronics as the most popular gift choice in 2024. According to NRF's survey, globally popular gift cards and toys remain popular gift options, with 43% and 32% of respondents mentioning these two categories. American consumers are expected to spend approximately $29.1 billion on gift cards, indicating a growth of around 1.7% compared to last year's strong levels. A trend that is becoming more popular is the gift of second-hand items - this should not be confused with re-gifting. NRF found that over half of the respondents would consider purchasing second-hand or "upcycled" gifts to stay within their holiday shopping budget and get more value for their money. Some popular second-hand gifts include books, accessories, and home decor.