Guotai Haitong: Lithium carbonate prices rise, sodium battery industry speeding up development

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the price of lithium carbonate is receiving significant market attention. Sodium batteries, with better cost-effectiveness (if scaled), rate performance, low-temperature performance, and more stable electrochemical performance, are expected to be an effective supplement to lithium-ion batteries. The sodium battery industry chain has completed a cold start, and with recent increases in lithium materials such as lithium carbonate and the advancement of leading companies in the sodium battery business, the sodium battery industry is expected to enter a period of industrial scale expansion. The sodium battery industry is expected to accelerate its implementation, and companies involved in the sodium ion battery industry chain are expected to benefit first. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The price of lithium carbonate is receiving significant market attention, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology and Contemporary Amperex Technology are cooperating on sodium batteries. 1) On November 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate 2061 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange broke through 100,000 yuan. Since October 9, futures prices have risen by over 30%, attracting significant market attention. On November 16, at the 10th International Summit on Power Battery Applications, the Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Group predicted that if the demand for lithium carbonate increases by more than 30% and even reaches 40% by 2026, the short-term supply imbalance may lead to prices exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton. 2) On November 16, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology announced that the company has been designated as the first supplier of sodium battery positive electrode powder for Contemporary Amperex Technology. Contemporary Amperex Technology has committed that if Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology meets the standards in terms of technology, quality, cost, delivery, and service, they will purchase no less than 60% of their total purchase amount each year; when the purchase amount reaches 500,000 tons or more in a year, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology will provide more favorable prices by reducing costs. Sodium batteries are expected to be an effective supplement to lithium-ion batteries. Due to sodium's lower specific energy, specific capacity, and energy density compared to lithium, the energy density limit of sodium-ion batteries is lower than that of lithium-ion batteries. However, the research believes that its better cost-effectiveness (if scaled), rate performance, low-temperature performance, and more stable electrochemical performance determine that sodium-ion batteries have a better comparative advantage in energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles, and A0-level passenger cars, and are expected to be an effective supplement to lithium-ion batteries. The sodium battery industry chain has completed a cold start and is expected to enter a period of industrial scale expansion. Since 2021, the rapid rise of new energy vehicles has led to a significant increase in the prices of lithium battery materials represented by lithium carbonate. In July 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology held a sodium-ion battery launch event, stating that the energy density of the first-generation sodium-ion battery cell developed by the company has reached 160Wh/kg, and it can charge to 80% in 15 minutes at room temperature. In April 2025, at the first Super Tech Day, Contemporary Amperex Technology launched a new sodium-ion battery brand - "Contemporary Amperex Technology Sodium New." C Contemporary Amperex Technology Chairman and CEO Zeng Yuqun said that the breakthrough of the sodium electricity system opens up resource boundaries and consolidates the foundation for the development of new energy. The maturity of sodium electricity has accelerated the arrival of the "multi-core era." The research believes that the sodium battery industry chain has completed the basic ecological construction and the price increase of lithium materials such as lithium carbonate is gradually narrowing the cost gap between sodium batteries and lithium batteries, and is optimistic about the market introduction of sodium batteries under the promotion of leading battery companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology. Risk warning: The scale of sodium battery materials may not meet expectations, and the introduction of sodium battery customers may not meet expectations.