September employment data shows "mixed signals", making the Federal Reserve more hesitant to cut interest rates.

The September employment growth and unemployment rate report released on Thursday revealed the overall condition of the job market, but still did not clearly indicate whether the Federal Reserve needs to support the job market by lowering interest rates. The data showed that the US added unexpectedly high 119,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4%, hitting a four-year high. However, this data did not significantly change the expectations of whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower interest rates at the December meeting. Some economists believe that the rise in the unemployment rate strengthens the reasons for the Fed to cut rates again next month, while others believe that the better-than-expected job growth suggests that the central bank should maintain interest rates, especially considering that there will be no new jobs report released before the policy meeting on December 9-10. It is understood that the November jobs report, delayed by the shutdown, will be released on December 16, while the October report was canceled due to the interruption of the survey. Olu Sonola, Head of US Economic Research at Fitch Ratings, said, "The positive aspects of the report bring surprises, but may reduce the probability of a rate cut in December. The slight uptick in the unemployment rate complicates the situation - a choice must be made between strong job growth and rising unemployment rate, as good news does not necessarily mean all good." According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the market's expectation of a rate cut has increased from about 30% before the data was released to about 40% on Friday. The tool predicts interest rate trends based on federal fund futures trading data. In the debate over whether to stimulate employment through rate cuts or to maintain high rates to combat inflation, Fed officials have always closely monitored scattered data reflecting the health of the job market. In the latest developments, several Fed officials have turned hawkish, including Fed Governor Michal Barr and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans have signaled concerns about inflation. Barr, who is responsible for overseeing regulatory affairs, rarely speaks on monetary policy matters, and his remarks on monetary policy prospects are usually neutral. However, he said on Thursday that the Fed needs to be cautious when considering further rate cuts. Evans also stated at an event in Indianapolis that inflation "seems to be stagnant or perhaps even signaling alarmingly in the wrong direction. This makes me somewhat uneasy." The dual mandate given by Congress to the Fed requires it to maintain low inflation and high employment simultaneously. Currently, officials have serious disagreements on their assessment of the threats of high inflation and massive layoffs - the 43-day government shutdown ended last week, causing delays or lack of key data needed for decision-making. To curb inflation, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for most of the year until the summer when the job market suddenly slowed down, leading to rate cuts of 25 basis points in September and October meetings. During this data vacuum period, the September jobs report was like a dim light, but not enough to tilt the balance decisively in favor of the hawks or doves within the committee. The limitations of this report are evident: firstly, there is a time lag in the data - the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice after the reporting period, and the government shutdown has also caused economic shocks; secondly, the report itself sends conflicting signals, showing a rebound in job creation and a rise in unemployment rate, as well as continuous wage growth. "This report is like a 'Rorschach test' projected in front of a deeply divided Fed," analyzed Jake Krimmel, Chief Economist at Realtor.com. "Hawks will point to robust job growth and nearly 4% annual wage increases, advocating against premature rate cuts; doves will emphasize the warning signs of the rising unemployment rate - nearing 4.5% in September indicates a threshold may have been reached by mid-November, making the situation in December even more pessimistic."