Second-hand house sales in the United States slightly rebounded in October, with the decline in mortgage rates helping to boost transactions. However, the recovery may be difficult to sustain.

In October, the sales of existing homes in the United States improved driven by a temporary decline in mortgage rates, but analysts warned that this rebound may be difficult to sustain. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the United States showed that after seasonally adjusted, the annualized sales volume of existing homes in October reached 4.1 million units, an increase of 1.2% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year. The data reflects completed transactions, mostly corresponding to home purchase contracts signed between August and September. During this period, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage first decreased then increased: starting at 6.63% in early August, dropping to a low of 6.13% in mid-September, and then rising to 6.37% by the end of the month. The current rate is around 6.36%. Although the U.S. government shutdown starting in October will not affect contract signings, some transactions involving flood insurance or government-guaranteed loans may be affected. In terms of inventory, the number of homes for sale in October decreased to 1.52 million units, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month, but still nearly 11% higher than the same period last year. With the current sales rate, there is only a 4.4-month supply of inventory in the market, indicating a continued tight supply. As a result, home prices continue to rise. In October, the median sales price of existing homes in the U.S. reached $415,200, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, marking the 28th consecutive month of year-on-year increases. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, stated that as mortgage rates fall and seasonal buying competition weakens, buyers have gained some advantage; however, housing affordability remains a key issue limiting the recovery in transaction volume, keeping overall sales at historically low levels. The length of time homes stay on the market has also increased, reaching an average of 34 days in October, higher than 29 days in the same period last year. The proportion of first-time homebuyers has improved, accounting for 32%, significantly higher than 27% in the same period last year. However, regional performance varies significantly. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, pointed out that in the Northeast, first-time homebuyers face the greatest hurdles due to insufficient supply; in the West, high home prices pose challenges. In contrast, the Midwest and South see stronger performances from first-time buyers due to more affordable prices and ample supply. In terms of price ranges, the market recovery shows a clear structure of "high-end leading the way". Sales of homes priced over $1 million increased by over 16% year-on-year; the $750,000 to $1 million range increased by 10%. In contrast, sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 only increased by about 1%, while sales of homes priced below $100,000 decreased by nearly 3%.