UBS Unfazed by Gold Pullback: Maintains Long Positions, Raises Optimistic Gold Price Forecast to $4900

On Thursday, UBS raised its bullish forecast for the price of gold from $4700 per ounce to $4900 per ounce. The bank still believes gold is attractive and maintains a bullish stance in its global asset allocation, stating that even at current levels, the metal remains an effective portfolio hedge. UBS indicates that factors such as further Fed rate cuts (and reduced real yields), ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, disruptions from the US midterm elections, and rising fiscal concerns should support continued demand from investors and central banks, while jewelry consumption may improve in the second half of 2026. After experiencing a strong rally in 2025, gold prices have stabilized above $4000 per ounce. The metal has surged nearly 60%, making it the best performing asset so far this year. At the time of writing, the spot gold price is stable near $4075. Despite recent market corrections, UBS still expects gold prices to rise further by 2026, raising its mid-term target to $4500 per ounce (up from $4200) with their most pessimistic expectation still at $3700 per ounce. UBS anticipates a moderate decline in gold prices to around $4300 per ounce following the US midterm elections in the fourth quarter of 2026. Additionally, UBS analysts stated that if political and financial risks escalate, the highest price target of $4900 per ounce may also be realized.