Key data will soon be "reissued," and the US bond market is on high alert.

On Thursday, the US Treasury market remained stable overall, but volatility indicators showed that there could be significant fluctuations in the coming days as the US emerges from the longest government shutdown in history. Data shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remained stable at a monthly level of 4.08%. Based on pricing of interest rate swaps linked to policy meeting dates, the currency market is divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month. It is worth noting that the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has risen to a one-month high after hitting a four-year low, indicating that upcoming economic data releases from the government could trigger market volatility. In this $30 trillion market, investors have been waiting for the re-release of government economic reports to find clues for the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision of the year. During the absence of official data, investors have had to rely on private sector data - the latest data from ADP shows that the US job market is slowing down. "As the government restarts data releases, US Treasury investors are preparing for greater volatility," said Michiel Tukker, Senior European Interest Rate Strategist at ING, in a client report. He added that since the market has not fully determined the Federal Reserve's next move, any new inflation and job data could affect the movement of the yield curve. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said on Wednesday that the October employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are unlikely to be released on time, making the situation even more complex. During the shutdown, US Treasury bonds traded sideways, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury fluctuating around the 4% mark. The Bloomberg US Treasury Index rose 0.4% during this period, continuing its best annual performance since 2020. However, on the eve of the government reopening, traders heavily purchased options on Treasury bonds targeting a drop in the 10-year yield below 4%, betting that the data flood would confirm the trend of economic weakness. "Prior to the December rate decision, only when the direction of the real economy and the policy inclination of the Federal Open Market Committee become clearer, can the yield break out of the current narrow trading range," wrote Ian Lyngen, Head of US Interest Rate Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, in a report on Wednesday. "Uneven private sector data highlights our concerns about downside risks in the job market."