IEA Warns Global Oil Demand Could Climb Until 2050, Casting Doubt on 1.5°C Climate Goal

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its latest World Energy Outlook, indicating that the global demand for oil and natural gas may continue increasing through 2050. This forecast contrasts sharply with earlier expectations of a swift global pivot toward renewable and low-carbon energy, underscoring growing challenges in meeting international climate objectives.

In its Current Policies Scenario (CPS) — which models energy use based only on existing national regulations rather than future climate pledges — the IEA projects oil demand to reach about 113 million barrels per day by mid-century. That level would represent roughly a 13% rise compared with estimated 2024 consumption. The agency also anticipates a 15% increase in total global energy use by 2035, largely driven by rising electricity demand linked to data center expansion and artificial intelligence growth. Investment in data centers alone is expected to total around $580 billion in 2025, exceeding the roughly $540 billion the world spends each year on oil production.

This year’s outlook reinstates the Current Policies Scenario as a primary reference point — a shift from the IEA’s more recent emphasis on net-zero emissions pathways. The agency explained that too few nations have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for the 2031–2035 period, making it difficult to build a credible climate-pledge scenario. However, in the agency’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) — which factors in policies that are announced but not yet enacted — oil demand is expected to reach its peak around 2030.

The report also highlights major expansion in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. Final investment decisions surged in 2025, and new export projects totaling roughly 300 billion cubic meters of annual capacity are projected to come online by 2030, increasing global supply by about 50%. Under the Current Policies Scenario, worldwide LNG trade is forecast to rise from about 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035, and to exceed 1,000 bcm by 2050.

The IEA’s findings raise serious climate concerns. In every scenario modeled, global warming surpasses 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Temperatures only stabilize or decline under the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, which assumes large-scale use of carbon removal technologies. In the Current Policies Scenario, average global temperatures could exceed 2°C by around 2050 and approach 2.9°C by 2100. The report also notes that geopolitical dynamics — including U.S. policy pressures — have influenced the agency’s emphasis on fossil fuel forecasts and energy security.