Industrial: Which industries are expected to have accelerated prosperity next year? Which ones will see a turnaround in their difficulties?
According to consistent expectations, next year the high prosperity or downturn reversal has resilience. The current low growth in the technology growth industry is concentrated in AI downstream, military industry, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and some new energy industries; while pro-cyclical industries are concentrated in steel, chemical industry, building materials, new consumption & service consumption, agriculture, etc.
Industrial released a research report stating that as the year-end market rushes to set prices in advance for the next year's economic outlook, economic expectations become more important, while the impact of current economic conditions on stock prices weakens. Looking back at the year-end market trends since 2016 (November-December), from a posterior perspective, the ranking of various industries' performance is strongly positively correlated with their next year's revenue growth speed, but weakly correlated, and even negatively correlated, with the current revenue growth speed. From this perspective, investors often seek to position themselves early in industries that are expected to have a better economic outlook for the next year at the end of the year. The key is to find the direction of the next year's winners or turnaround situations. According to consensus expectations, next year's high economic prosperity or turnaround posses elasticity. The current round of low-growth technology-driven industries is mainly focused on downstream AI, military, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and some new energy industry chains; cyclical industries are focused on steel, chemicals, building materials, new consumption & service consumption, agriculture, etc.
Next year, high economic prosperity (expected net profit growth rate >30%) and accelerating economy are expected in industries such as AI hardware (communication equipment, consumer electronics, semiconductors), new energy (batteries, wind power equipment), military (ground-based equipment), and IT services, with wind power equipment, ground-based equipment, and IT services showing low growth rates.
Next year, high economic prosperity is expected in industries such as electronics (components, optical electronics), downstream AI (games, software development), automotive (passenger cars, commercial vehicles), military (marine and aerospace equipment, military electronics), automation equipment, and photovoltaic equipment.
Next year, industries with expected net profit growth of 10%-30% and improving economic conditions (accelerating economy/turnaround) include pharmaceuticals (chemical pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biological products), downstream AI (digital media, computer equipment), machinery (construction machinery, special equipment, general equipment), and new energy (power grid equipment, motors), etc.
According to consensus expectations, next year, high economic prosperity or turnaround potential is shown in cyclical industries with low current growth rates, including steel, chemicals, building materials, new consumption & service consumption, and agriculture.
Next year, high economic prosperity (expected net profit growth rate >30%) and accelerating economy are expected in industries such as airport construction, building materials (glass fiber, plastics, non-metal materials), new metal materials, agriculture (farming, animal husbandry), etc.
Next year, high economic prosperity is expected in industries such as energy metals, chemical fibers, rubber, retail, and leisure food.
Industries with expected net profit growth of 10%-30% and improving economic conditions include new consumption (beverages and dairy products, fashion accessories, entertainment products, cosmetics, personal care products, small home appliances), service consumption (education, hotel and catering, tourist attractions), agriculture (feed), chemicals (raw materials, chemical products), special steel, decoration building materials, etc.
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