Guotai Haitong: DRAM storage continues to rise, AI computing power demand continues to drive the electronic industry chain prosperity.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the demand for AI applications and inference computing power is surging, driving a significant increase in demand for high-performance storage chips. The spot price of DRAM memory has increased by 9.8% month-on-month, continuing its rapid rise. In September, domestic semiconductor sales increased by 15.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate further improving, and the semiconductor and electronics industry maintained a high level of prosperity. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The electronics industry continues to thrive, with improving export demand. Last week (October 27-November 2), the mid-term prosperity showed differentiation and is worth noting: 1) The surging demand for AI computing power continues to drive the prosperity of the electronic industry chain, with the tight supply of DRAM memory leading to a continued rapid increase in prices, and the growth rate of domestic semiconductor sales improving marginally. 2) Positive progress has been made in the US-China trade negotiations, leading to expectations of improved export demand. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) saw a significant increase month-on-month, and port cargo/container throughput improved significantly. 3) Real estate and domestic demand remain weak, with steel and coal prices showing resilience due to tightening supply caused by environmental regulations. The overall prosperity of the construction materials industry is weak. The domestic sales prosperity of durable goods continues to be under pressure, and future attention will be on the specific implementation of stable growth and consumption policies. Consumer Market: Real estate sales are hitting bottom, and domestic sales of durable goods remain under pressure. 1) Real estate: The year-on-year transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 39.9%. Among them, the year-on-year transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier/second-tier/third-tier cities decreased by 57.0%/-32.7%/-27.4%. The year-on-year transaction area of second-hand houses in the top 10 key cities decreased by 28.3%. Real estate sales continue to hit bottom. 2) Durable consumer goods: From October 20th to 26th, the year-on-year retail sales of passenger cars nationwide decreased by 9.0%. The retail sales volume in October was weak, mainly due to overconsumption of previous demand, coupled with the withdrawal of current subsidies; The year-on-year production capacity of domestic/exports of air conditioners in November decreased by 21.2%/-13.8%, showing the overconsumption effect domestically and entering a destocking cycle overseas, putting pressure on export prosperity. 3) Agriculture and animal husbandry: The month-on-month pig prices increased by 4.1%, with increased weight gain in the supply side, the terminal consumption picking up, and the incremental improvement in supply and demand pattern, driving pig prices to rise. The positive signals released from the China-US meeting led to a significant increase in domestic staple food prices. 4) Service consumption: The tourism consumption price index of Hainan increased by 1.4% month-on-month, and the box office slightly improved, but still decreased by 58.7% year-on-year, indicating weak prosperity. Technology & Manufacturing: The electronics industry continues to thrive, while overall demand for construction is weak. 1) Technology hardware: The soaring demand for AI applications and inference computing power leads to a significant increase in demand for high-performance storage chips, with the spot price of DRAM memory increasing by 9.8% month-on-month, continuing its rapid rise; In September, domestic semiconductor sales increased by 15.0% year-on-year, further improving the growth rate, and the prosperity of the semiconductor and electronics industry continued to operate at a high level. 2) Infrastructure and real estate: The overall demand for construction remains weak, with the marginal tightening of the blast furnace operating rate in the steel industry due to environmental inspections, steel prices have stopped declining and rebounded, while the prosperity of the construction materials industry continues to be under pressure. 3) Manufacturing operation: The manufacturing operation rate is differentiated, with the marginal decline in the willingness of enterprises to recruit. Upstream resources: Coal prices remain stable month-on-month, and industrial metal prices fluctuate narrowly. 1) Coal: With the safety inspection in November approaching, coal mine supply remains tight, coupled with high daily consumption at power plants, coal prices remain stable month-on-month; 2) Non-ferrous metals: Overseas interest rate cuts have taken effect, with a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts in December, leading to narrow fluctuations in international metal prices, which have some suppressed demand downstream of industrial metals. Human flow and logistics: Passenger demand continues to improve, and port throughput increases month-on-month. 1) Passenger transport: Long-distance travel demand is slightly warming up, with the Baidu Migration Scale Index increasing by 2.1% month-on-month and 17.0% year-on-year, indicating high levels of urban travel activity. 2) Freight transport: Freight logistics demand has slightly declined month-on-month, with a decrease in the number of trucks passing through national highways and national railway freight volumes month-on-month by -2.5%/-0.8%; Last week, the national postal and express collection/delivery volume decreased by -6.2%/-2.2%. 3) Maritime transport: Positive progress has been made in US-China negotiations, with expectations of improved exports. Shipping prices have significantly increased, and port throughput has increased month-on-month. Risk prompts: Uncertainty in domestic policies, uncertainty in trade frictions, and uncertainty in global geopolitical situations.