Is the first government shutdown in seven years really coming? Trump has tough talk about shutting it down, blaming it all on the Democrats. The House plans to adjourn until next month.

The wolf may indeed be coming. Some signs indicate that if the Democratic Party does not give in to the threats of the Republican Party, the United States federal government is at risk of shutting down for the first time in nearly seven years. With only four days left until the October 1 deadline for government funding, the two parties remain deadlocked on healthcare issues, with negotiations at a standstill. President Trump canceled a scheduled meeting with Democratic Party leaders, further escalating the risk of a shutdown. On Friday, Trump left Washington, spending most of the weekend at a golf tournament without any signs of intervening in the deadlock between the two parties. On that day, he made harsh remarks about allowing the government to shut down, placing full blame on the Democrats. Commentators believe that Trump's statements reflect the belief within the Republican leadership that they can gain the upper hand in the shutdown showdown with the Democrats. Senate Republican leader John Thune insisted on the Democrats "rolling back" their healthcare demands, including extending the subsidies for healthcare introduced during the Obama administration that are set to expire soon. The House of Representatives even plans to reconvene on October 1 - the day the government shutdown would begin. If the federal government shuts down, hundreds of thousands of federal employees will face unpaid leave, "nonessential" services such as national parks will close, and crucial economic data such as the nonfarm payroll report may be delayed. The Trump administration recently issued an unprecedented threat of large-scale permanent layoffs during a government shutdown. Media commentary on Friday suggested that as time passes, a government shutdown seems inevitable rather than just a possibility. One reason for this conclusion is that Trump chose to leave Washington at a crucial moment nearing the shutdown deadline, heading to New York to participate in the Ryder Cup golf tournament. Upon leaving the White House on Friday, Trump explicitly stated, "These Democrats are insane. If we have to shut down, we will shut down. But it will be on them." Media pointed out that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries proposed interparty dialogue on the government funding issue, but Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson have so far rejected their dialogue proposal. Trump also canceled a scheduled meeting this week with Schumer and Jeffries, further exacerbating the political standoff. Trump's budget office even issued a memo warning federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs during a government shutdown, a threat far beyond previous practice. Republican leaders are confident in their superiority in the shutdown battle. They refuse to address Democratic healthcare priorities in the must-pass funding bill, believing that the Democrats will ultimately compromise. Senate Majority Leader Thune stated that the Democrats must "roll back" their demands, including extending healthcare subsidies for millions of Americans set to expire, and repealing the healthcare cuts implemented by Republicans earlier this year to fund Trump's tax cuts. Thune suggested that negotiations could be held in the future on extending some of the healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act implemented during the Obama administration, on the condition that the Democrats drop their opposition to the temporary spending bill proposed by the Republicans for a seven-week duration. Thune plans to reconsider this short-term proposal, which has already been passed in the House of Representatives, early next week. Senate Democratic leader Schumer blocked the above Republican temporary spending bill last week, insisting that voters will blame Trump for attempting to cut healthcare benefits for millions of people. Schumer posted on social media, "Trump is making healthcare in America more expensive, and he is about to shut down the government for it." Minnesota Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar stated that the Democrats are willing to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown: "We never said we must get every demand." However, she expressed doubt about Thune's commitment to future negotiations on healthcare subsidies. Congressional recess continues, deadlock unlikely to be broken in the short term Media pointed out that, like Trump, most U.S. lawmakers left Washington on Friday, just after completing a one-week recess. The House of Representatives even plans to reconvene on October 1 - the official start date of the government shutdown. This lack of urgency in the schedule stands in stark contrast to the potential consequences a government shutdown could have on many Americans. House Democratic leader Jeffries stated that the situation could change rapidly: "In Washington, about five days is an eternity." However, Congressional leaders have not shared any strategies to resolve the deadlock at present. Media pointed out that the key to breaking the deadlock lies within the Senate. If Republicans want the government spending bill to pass in the Senate, they will need at least seven Democratic senators to defect in procedural votes, as most legislation requires 60 votes to overcome procedural obstacles. Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine expressed hope for "negotiation," suggesting that there may be room for compromise. At present, the only concession Republicans have made is a commitment to discuss other matters before November 21, provided that the Democrats accept a "clean" bill without additional policy demands outside of temporary spending. Economic data releases such as the nonfarm payroll report are threatened, and the Trump administration may implement large-scale permanent layoffs If the government shuts down, approximately 850,000 "nonessential" federal employees are expected to be forced into unpaid leave, hundreds of national parks and museums will close, veteran services will be affected, health checks will be suspended, and immigration hearings will be postponed. "Essential" services such as national security, law enforcement, air traffic control, etc. will continue to operate but might indirectly be affected. Projects funded through "mandatory" expenditures like Social Security will mainly continue, but new registrations and other services may be suspended. The release of crucial economic data is expected to be significantly affected. Michael Pugliese, an economist from Wells Fargo, pointed out that after the government shutdown in 2013, monthly employment and consumer price index reports were "delayed by about two weeks." The September jobs report scheduled for release on October 3 and the CPI data for September on October 15 both face the risk of being delayed. Media reported on Friday that according to an emergency operating plan proposed by the U.S. Department of Labor in March this year, if the government shuts down, the September jobs report scheduled for release next Friday on October 3 will be postponed. The specific scope of the government shutdown is currently unclear. Most government agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) responsible for compiling the monthly jobs report, have not publicly released updated emergency plans in the event of a government shutdown. Furthermore, the Trump administration's threat of massive permanent layoffs is unprecedented. Normally, the government places employees on temporary leave, bringing them back to work once new funding legislation is passed by Congress. Media reports that this threat has caused panic among federal government employees.