U.S. Soybean Farmers Driven to the Edge by Tariffs, Losing Their Largest Export Market

As the U.S. soybean harvest reaches its peak, tariff policies under the Trump administration are placing growers in a precarious position, effectively costing them their largest export market and exposing them to significant price pressure. The American Soybean Association’s president, Randy (surname as reported), said in a recent interview that China—the sector’s biggest buyer—has not placed any orders since the autumn harvest commenced, prompting an urgent appeal to the White House over the market’s critical importance to farmers’ livelihoods.

Representing roughly 300,000 growers across 30 soybean-producing states, the Association warns that producers are facing intensifying strains from a combination of trade tensions, immigration policies, inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates. The group has repeatedly opposed tariffs on Chinese imports since the first Trump administration and has urged negotiations to prevent further erosion of market share to competitors such as Brazil.

To counter mounting foreign competition, the administration’s latest tax‑reform package proposes $60 billion in agricultural subsidies over the next decade. Critics contend the program effectively transfers risk to taxpayers and disproportionately benefits large agribusiness concerns. In an August 19 letter to the President, the Association described severe financial stress among soybean growers and urged that soybean issues be prioritized in U.S.–China trade talks. With input costs and equipment expenses rising sharply while soybean prices decline, many farmers report they cannot endure a protracted loss of access to their largest purchasing market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects this year’s soybean production will reach a record 4.3 billion bushels, yet prices are down roughly 40% from the 2022 peak. The broader supply chain—spanning fertilizer, machinery, storage, transport, finance and port operations—now faces heightened employment and operational risk.

Regional financial conditions compound the sector’s challenges. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City indicate agricultural loan rates remain at decade highs, and agricultural debt is expected to climb further in 2025 toward about $562 billion. The share of loans at elevated default risk across much of the Midwest has reached its highest level since 2020.

Political repercussions are emerging in states that previously supported the President. Iowa farmer Trent Kuhn observed that tariff impacts are real for farms of all sizes, and deteriorating farm incomes could influence the November 2026 midterm elections. Whether the Republican Party maintains legislative strength will be consequential for the administration’s policy agenda.

China’s structural demand dynamics—driven by rising feed consumption and limited arable land—have sustained strong import growth. The American Soybean Association estimates China accounts for roughly 60% of global soybean imports. Historically, before 2018 an average of 28% of U.S. soybean output was destined for China, representing about 60% of U.S. soybean exports in that period. In the 2023–2024 fiscal year, prior to the most recent policy shifts, U.S. soybean shipments to China approached 25 million tonnes, far exceeding exports to the European Union, the second‑largest market, at 4.9 million tonnes.

China’s diversification of suppliers has shifted market dynamics: Brazil has become China’s largest soybean provider, commanding over 40% of global soybean trade and increasing exports to China by more than 280% since 2010. Further pressure on U.S. exporters arose this week after Argentina removed grain export taxes, prompting Chinese buyers to book at least ten cargoes of Argentine soybeans, according to international traders—another adverse development for American producers.