Global Competitive Landscape of Humanoid Robots: China Leads Commercialization, Tesla Optimus V3 Garners Global Focus, South Korea Ramps Up to Rival U.S. and China

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the humanoid robot sector is at an inflection point, advancing swiftly from proof-of-concept demonstrations to real-world commercial rollouts, with the global market projected to swell to USD 5 trillion by 2050. In its most recent research note, the firm identifies a three-way competitive dynamic: China dominating commercial order flow, Tesla’s Optimus V3 setting the innovation benchmark, and South Korea mobilizing substantial public funds to close the gap.

China has secured a commanding lead in commercialization, with confirmed orders totaling RMB 975 million. Domestic integrators such as Unitree Robotics, UBTECH ROBOTICS, AUBO Robotics, Zhujidong Dynamics, and Zhifang Robotics have each announced multi-million-yuan contracts, cementing China’s first-mover advantage. Government backing has been equally vigorous, including the establishment of roughly RMB 187 billion in industrial funds and a national “AI + Manufacturing” initiative designed to accelerate AI-driven robotics across sectors. Local authorities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have likewise set aggressive targets, aiming to cultivate a fully integrated ecosystem by 2027. Reflecting this momentum, the China Humanoid Robot Value-Chain Index has surged 92.3% year-to-date, outpacing the MSCI China Index’s 37.6% gain, and Unitree Robotics confirms its intention to file for an initial public offering in the fourth quarter.

Tesla’s Optimus V3 has captured global attention by promising human-grade hand dexterity and advanced AI-powered situational awareness. CEO Elon Musk revealed that V3 features a bespoke motor, gearbox, and electronics suite built around a new tendon-inspired hand design, which will debut at Tesla’s forthcoming Robotaxi Day. The introduction of Tesla’s AI5 inference chip—delivering a 40-fold performance uplift over its predecessor—completes the platform’s core technology stack. Musk describes Optimus V3 as the “correct design for mass production,” with plans to build hundreds of units by year-end 2025 and to scale volume output in 2026. At full operational capacity of one million units annually, the cost per robot is expected to fall to USD 20,000–25,000. Under Musk’s latest compensation framework, any AI-enabled mobile device qualifies as a “robot,” opening the door to future product extensions beyond humanoids.

South Korea is now mounting a vigorous response. The government has unveiled a KRW 150 trillion (approximately USD 108 billion) high-technology fund targeting AI and robotics, while corporate champions move to translate strategy into action. Hyundai Motor, in collaboration with Boston Dynamics, intends to establish a U.S. production facility capable of 30,000 robots per year. Samsung Electronics is assembling its own humanoid-robot ecosystem, integrating hardware and software development. Pioneering firms such as Rainbow Robotics have released the RB-Y1 for industrial logistics applications, demonstrating solid technical capabilities. Although South Korea’s cumulative deployments lag those of China and the U.S., its prowess in precision manufacturing and electronics positions the country to become a formidable competitor. Mirroring domestic enthusiasm, the MSCI Korea Humanoid Robot 100 Index has climbed 29.1% since inception, underscoring investor confidence in the nation’s prospects.

Morgan Stanley further predicts that global installations will reach 23.7 million units by 2036 and exceed 1.02 billion by 2050, generating nearly USD 5 trillion in annual revenues—twice the combined 2024 turnover of the world’s top 20 automakers. Since its February 6 launch, the Morgan Stanley Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen 24.7%, highlighting the pronounced market conviction that this industry is poised for explosive growth.