Trump threatens "the US government is very likely to shut down on October 1st", the Democratic Party "is ready to take action", will this "the wolf is coming" come true?

Although the Republicans narrowly passed a short-term spending bill in the US House of Representatives vote, neither this bill nor the competing version from the Democrats were able to pass in the Senate, raising the risk of a government shutdown at the beginning of next month. In a Senate vote on Friday, a short-term spending bill proposed by Republicans failed to reach the required 60 votes for approval, with only 44 votes in favor and 48 votes against. Earlier on Friday, the bill had passed in the House with a slim margin of 217 in favor and 212 against. The Senate also voted earlier on Friday on a competing short-term spending bill drafted by Democrats. Due to opposition from Republican lawmakers, this bill also failed to pass. The vote result was 47 in favor and 45 against, falling short of the 60-vote threshold for approval. Both parties' short-term spending bills failed to pass in the Senate, leaving Congress in a deadlock to avoid a government shutdown. The current bill only supports the federal government until the end of this month. This means that within less than two weeks, Congress must pass at least one bill to ensure short-term spending, or else some government agencies will shut down on the first day of the new fiscal year, October 1st. After the stock market closed on Friday, US President Trump also issued a warning that the federal government could shut down due to the deadlock between the two parties. He said, "We will continue to negotiate with the Democrats, but I think in the end, the country is likely to shut down for a period of time." The spending bills from both parties each had security appropriations, with the main difference being in healthcare policy. The Republican bill, voted on in the House and Senate on Friday, would provide funding to keep the government running until November 21st and include an additional $88 million for security for legislators, executive branch officials, and government agencies. However, this bill did not include the healthcare policy provisions advocated by the Democrats. On Wednesday, the Democrats introduced a spending bill totaling $1.5 trillion, funding the government until October 31st. It also included additional security funding for legislators, executive branch officials, and federal Department of Justice members. Unlike the Republicans' so-called "clean" bill, the Democratic bill included provisions related to healthcare. It allocated $350 billion to permanently extend the expiring subsidies of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), created under the Obama administration. The Democratic bill aimed to restore nearly $1 trillion in healthcare subsidies that were cut under the Republican tax bill passed earlier this summer. It also reversed cuts to medical research spending, restored funding to NPR and PBS, and prevented the White House from unilaterally withholding funds approved by Congress. Senate Minority Leader Schumer argued in favor of the healthcare fight, stating that it was necessary to fight now for the ACA subsidies as insurance companies would begin notifying of premium increases on November 1st. The Republicans staunchly refused to include healthcare provisions in the short-term spending bills. House Speaker Johnson stated that the Republicans could not revoke any part of their signature tax reform, but hinted that negotiations over ACA subsidies might take place by the end of the year. In the Senate, where Republicans have a majority with 53 seats, the Democrats hold 47 seats, but 60 votes are needed to pass the temporary spending bill before October 1st. This means that the Republicans would need at least 7 Democratic votes. In Friday's Senate votes, only one Democratic Senator crossed party lines to support the Republican bill, while two Republican Senators voted against it. In the vote for the Democratic bill, seven Senators were absent, all Republicans. Schumer is facing significant pressure from grassroots activists to resist the Republicans and the Trump administration. With difficulties in stopping Trump's agenda and getting media attention, the Democrats are feeling the pressure of risking a government shutdown. The Senate leadership is prepared to vote on both the House-passed Republican spending bill and the Democratic version simultaneously. Schumer said on Thursday in the Senate, "The Republicans have a choice: either listen to Trump and shut down the government, or break the deadlock by supporting our bill to keep the government running." The current budget dispute only involves about a quarter of the $7 trillion federal budget, which also includes mandatory programs like social security and Medicare, as well as interest payments on the $37.5 trillion national debt. The federal government's operational funds should come from annual budget appropriations. Congress is supposed to pass new annual appropriations bills before the start of the new fiscal year on October, but due to fierce partisan battles in recent years, they often fail to reach a timely agreement, leading Congress to try to maintain federal government operations temporarily through temporary appropriations bills.