Bernstein outlines the 2030 technology landscape: AI reasoning dominates the trillion-dollar blue ocean, betting on Apple, AI servers, and storage.

Tech companies such as Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C (DELL.US), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE.US), and Seagate (STX.US) became the focal point of the US stock market on Tuesday, following a new research report released by the renowned Wall Street investment firm Bernstein. The report highlighted the development trend of artificial intelligence technology, particularly the trillion-dollar level "super blue ocean" expected to be brought by the massively huge AI reasoning systems by 2030, which should bring long-term benefits to these large tech companies focused on IT hardware and consumer electronics. Undoubtedly, the global cloud computing giant Oracle Corporation, which recently announced contract bookings far exceeding market expectations of $455 billion, and the global AI ASIC chip "superpower" Broadcom Inc., which reported strong performance and future prospects last week, have significantly reinforced the "long-term bullish narrative" of AI GPU, ASIC, and HBM AI computing infrastructure sectors. The demand for AI computing power brought by generative AI applications and AI intelligent agents dominating the reasoning end is expected to drive exponential growth in the artificial intelligence computing infrastructure market, with AI reasoning systems being identified as the largest source of NVIDIA Corporation's future revenue by Huang Renxun. According to Wall Street investment giants Loop Capital and Wedbush, the global AI infrastructure investment wave centered on AI computing power hardware is far from over and is only in its early stages. With the unprecedented "AI computing power demand storm" driving this round of AI investment wave, the scale of this wave is expected to reach as high as $2 trillion. NVIDIA Corporation CEO Huang Renxun even predicts that by 2030, AI infrastructure spending will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion, which will bring significant long-term growth opportunities for NVIDIA Corporation. Apple Inc. is hailed as the "best entry point for the AI reasoning revolution," while Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C benefits from the growth in AI server shipments. Since September 11, Apple Inc. stock has performed well, with a gain of over 5% during this period, recovering all losses from early September. According to data tracked by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., delivery times for all iPhone 17 models globally are longer than previous models, highlighting strong actual pre-order demand driven by AI and performance upgrades despite some user criticisms of the lack of highlights in the new iPhone 17. Standard and Pro Max models have seen the largest increase in delivery times, extending by 8 days each. The Chinese mainland market has shown particularly strong performance, with an average increase of 17 days in delivery times, reaching a waiting period of 27 days. Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook recently defended the lasting strong influence of the iPhone, stating that even with the emergence of complementary smart electronic devices, the iPhone will remain the core of people's lives in the upcoming era of artificial intelligence. "Although short-term concerns about an AI bubble in the market still exist, we believe that there is significant upside potential in IT hardware and consumer electronics in the long run," wrote analysts from Bernstein. "While there is a huge range of uncertainties in the outcomes, in our baseline scenario for 2030, we conservatively estimate enterprise-side reasoning costs to be around $13 trillion (implying an expected compound annual growth rate of about 67% between 2025 and 2030)." "We believe that ongoing model improvements and iterative updates are key leading indicators, and we remind that massive capital expenditures may be a lagging indicator. In addition to taking a positive view on long-term prospects, we also believe that early signs of prospering developments in the field of artificial intelligence in recent times are healthy, and overall we have a positive outlook on this theme," the Bernstein analyst team stated. For Apple Inc., the institution described this tech giant, with a product line including iPhone and iPad, as "one of the best entry points for the AI reasoning revolution." Bernstein's analyst team believes that under the leadership of Tim Cook, this tech giant is one of the best-positioned and most likely to benefit from the AI layout in the sector, but the institution also pointed out that if Apple Inc. fails to execute well, the risks are also the greatest. Statistics show that Apple Inc.'s active devices in its ecosystem have reached 2.35 billion, which means that once reasoning capabilities are integrated at the system level, developers can reach a massive number of end users "plug-and-play," which is the core engineering advantage of the "AI entry point." Apple Inc.'s AI application tool - Apple Intelligence is designed to run locally by Apple Inc., calling on larger models through Private Cloud Compute (PCC) only when necessary, and "moving Apple Inc.'s terminal security model 'to the cloud', providing verifiable transparency and minimal data residency, which is highly attractive for building sensitive scenarios (personal and enterprise data). Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. could also become long-term beneficiaries of the AI investment theme, as Bernstein believes that the significant expansion of AI server shipments should drive "significant" profit and free cash flow growth. However, the institution has a more cautious view of another AI server leader, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.US), as it believes the company faces "execution challenges and valuation concerns." AI server giants Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C and Super Micro Computer, Inc., one of the company's largest competitors in AI servers, are constantly increasing capacity to manufacture AI servers equipped with NVIDIA Corporation's latest AI GPU - based on Blackwell's B200/GB200, and more advanced BG300 AI server clusters, to win larger businesses from companies building and using AI applications. Numerous generative AI application software like ChatGPT, Claude, and Sora video large models require immensely large data processing capabilities and expanding hardware-side AI computing resources. Through years of close cooperation with NVIDIA Corporation, Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C uses the latest NVIDIA Corporation GPUs and integrates a full set of CUDA acceleration tools to provide indispensable GPU acceleration for AI training/inference workloads, ensuring the best integration and performance optimization of hardware and software priority between Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C and NVIDIA Corporation. Two storage giants - Seagate and SanDisk are also highly regarded by Bernstein. In addition, Bernstein's analyst team also pointed out that the enormous AI reasoning end computing power demand undoubtedly is driving a long-term surge in data storage demand, and the institution believes Seagate (STX.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) are likely to be seen as the largest beneficiaries of the increased storage demand. As of Monday's closing on the US stock market, NAND flash leader SanDisk's stock price for the year has skyrocketed by an astonishing 500%, while Western Digital Corporation, a storage giant providing hard drives (HDD) and NAND flash/SSD products, has surged by 128% during the same period. Another global HDD leader Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has also recorded a strong increase of 148%. In the unprecedented frenzy of AI infrastructure investment by large enterprises and various government departments globally, the core storage chip demand closely related to AI training/inference systems is still extremely hot, driving significant revenue growth for Micron's data center business, including HBM storage systems, server-level DDR5, and enterprise SSD. With breakthrough AI tools like AI intelligent agents penetrating various industries globally, bringing immense "AI reasoning end computing power demand," it means that the future prospects of AI computing infrastructure areas such as AI chips, HBM storage systems, enterprise-level SSDs, and high-performance network and power equipment will be immense. Companies' urgent need to improve efficiency and reduce operating costs has pushed forward the widespread application of the two core categories of AI application software - generative AI applications and AI intelligent agents, with the emergence of AI intelligent agents indicating that artificial intelligence is evolving from an information assistance tool to a highly intelligent productivity tool. AI intelligent agents represented by OpenAI Deep Research and Manus can automate repetitive tasks, analyze and summarize large volumes of data based on incredibly powerful AI models, provide real-time monitoring insights, and make appropriate decisions in extremely complex situations in a short time, thereby enhancing operational efficiency for enterprises. This logic also applies to personal learning and work efficiency. AI intelligent agents can also efficiently participate in all stages of large projects globally, from blueprint planning to implementation, significantly accelerating project progress. "We expect data center storage to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 23% until 2030, where HDD and NAND manufacturers are likely to greatly benefit from the continued surge in storage demand brought by AI reasoning," wrote Bernstein's analyst team. "In the [hard disk drive] sector, a relatively stable oligopoly structure should bring steady profit and free cash flow growth, where Seagate, leading in HAMR technology, is in the best position. In terms of NAND, as the 'new storage paradigm' fully penetrates, SanDisk should achieve significant profit growth." Finally, the institution also commented exclusively on the quantum computing revolution, stating that the long-established US tech giant IBM (IBM.US) could eventually become the industry leader in the field of quantum computing. "Despite being viewed as a declining traditional player, IBM's substantial investment in quantum computing innovation has begun to yield some returns, driving the institution's performance back to a growth track," the analysts wrote in a report.