Industrial: How will various asset classes perform after the Fed cuts interest rates?
Current market expectations are that the Federal Reserve may implement a "precautionary rate cut" of 25 basis points in September. Historically, the guidance provided by the Federal Reserve's "precautionary rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" have been different for major asset prices.
Industrial published a research report stating that the Federal Reserve is about to hold its September interest rate meeting, and the current market expectation is that the Fed will lower interest rates three times this year. 95% of market participants believe that the rate cut in September will be a "preventive cut" of 25 basis points.
Historically, there are differences in the guidance for asset prices between the Fed's "preventive cuts" and "recessionary cuts". Following a preventive cut, A-shares benefit from loose liquidity and increased risk appetite, with sectors such as TMT technology, food and beverage, social services, beauty and healthcare, and biopharmaceuticals performing well. In comparison, Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to external liquidity and tend to rise overall due to loose pricing liquidity after a preventive cut, with industries such as essential and non-essential consumption, industry, and technology performing well.
As for gold, after a preventative rate cut, prices are temporarily boosted by loose liquidity, but they may start to decline if economic expectations improve and the US dollar and bonds strengthen.
Key points by Industrial include:
On September 17th, the Federal Reserve will hold its September interest rate meeting, potentially starting a new cycle of rate cuts. Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole in August almost confirmed a rate cut in September, and moderate job and inflation data further cemented market expectations. The market currently anticipates three rate cuts by the Fed this year, with 95% expecting a 25 basis point preventive cut in September.
Looking back on history, the Fed's "preventive cuts" and "recessionary cuts" have different effects on asset prices. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have experienced adjustment and growth based on the type of rate cut implemented by the Fed.
In summary, preventive cuts are expected to boost asset prices and risk appetite, while recessionary cuts may lead to adjustments and defensive asset preferences.
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