Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rose together with heavyweight speech by Powell impending

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Before the market on Friday, August 22, the futures for the three major US stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures were up 0.33%, the S&P 500 index futures were up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq futures were up 0.22%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index was up 0.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.05%, the France CAC 40 index was up 0.25%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index was up 0.30%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.31% at $63.72 per barrel, while Brent crude oil was up 0.19% at $67.80 per barrel. Market News Focus on Jackson Hole! Powell's speech could be a key turning point for Fed policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday night (10 pm Beijing time). This "annual financial market event of the summer" is seen as a crucial moment for the future direction of Fed monetary policy. The market is highly anticipating Powell confirming the possibility of a rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are betting with a 73.5% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 16-17 meeting, and they expect at least one more rate cut this year. However, analysts warn that if Powell refuses to commit early or suggest that the market's expectations are too high, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets. Wall Street Outlook: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects Powell not to explicitly signal a rate cut, while Yardeni expects only a 40% probability of a rate cut in September. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. economist David Mericle said, "We don't expect Powell to clearly signal a rate cut in September, but his speech should indicate to the market that he may support a cut." "If Powell pushes for a rate cut, most FOMC members who are ambivalent about a September cut may support the action. But he believes it would be more reasonable to persuade them based on more data as the meeting approaches." Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni believes there is about a 40% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September. He pointed out that the Fed still needs to evaluate two inflation reports and one employment report before the September meeting. HSBC: AI helps US companies reduce costs under tariff impact, may support S&P 500 reaching 7000 by year-end. HSBC said that while tariffs are a negative factor for US corporate profit margins, they may also act as a catalyst for companies to quickly adopt artificial intelligence (AI) to save costs. The bank believes that it is feasible for AI to reduce the operating costs of S&P 500 index component companies by 1% over the next few years, which will help offset about a quarter of the cost increase brought about by a 20% effective tariff. The benefits of using AI are not limited to cost reduction. AI also helps automate tasks, improve efficiency, and enable companies to generate more revenue on the same cost basis. The bank's US stock strategist also said that if AI adoption continues to accelerate, it may drive a meaningful re-rating of the market and support the S&P 500 reaching 7000 by year-end (in a bull market scenario). Is the US tariff inflation really coming? UBS Group AG: Costs are already being passed on. UBS Group AG said that the current effective tariff rate in the US has exceeded 18% and is expected to stabilize at around 15% by the middle of 2026. The soaring tariffs and the corresponding depreciation of the US dollar have not yet had a significant impact in official inflation data, and cost pass-through takes time, but evidence is accumulating that companies are passing on tariff costs to consumers. Although the impact is slow to appear, tariffs are expected to eventually reduce US GDP growth by about 1 percentage point, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be about 1 percentage point higher than in a scenario without tariffs. Silver price consolidation, UBS Group AG bullish: Could approach 2011 highs in the medium to long term. Recently, silver prices have been consolidating around the $38 per ounce level. UBS Group AG expects that if the Fed continues its rate cut policy, silver prices could rise to $42 to $44 per ounce, which is in line with its recent upward revision of gold price forecasts. UBS Group AG is bullish on silver and will increase positions if the price falls below $36 per ounce. In addition, the bank believes that while options volatility is low, this metal is still suitable for a volatility selling strategy. Stock News Gold prices soar! Gold Fields Limited Sponsored ADR (GFI.US) doubles profit in the first half of the year, significantly increases interim dividends. The financial report shows that the company achieved a net profit of $1.02 billion in the six months to June 30, a significant increase from $389 million in the same period last year, with core profit increasing from $320.7 million to $1.027 billion. Basic earnings per share increased from $0.43 to $1.15, falling within the forecast range of $1.09-1.21. Diluted earnings per share, excluding special items, were also $1.15, which also met the expected range. In addition, the company announced an interim dividend of 7 rand ($0.3948) per share, significantly higher than the 3 rand per share for the first half of 2024. Zoom (ZM.US) achieves highest revenue growth rate in 11 quarters. In the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, the company's enterprise business sales increased by 7% year-on-year to $7.307 billion, higher than the average Wall Street analyst expectations of $7.167 billion. Zoom reported that 4,274 customers individually contributed over $100,000 in revenue in the past year. The company expects total revenue for the fiscal year ending in January to be around $48.3 billion, with strong growth in non-GAAP profits in the range of $5.81 to $5.84 per share. In comparison, Wall Street analysts expect revenue of around $48 billion and earnings per share of around $5.60. As of writing, Zoom was up 5% in pre-market trading on Friday. Discount retailer Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US) beats expectations on performance and guidance. Holiday season retail prices have increased due to tariff policies, leading to continued growth in consumer demand for discount clothing and accessories. In the three months ending August 2, the company reported sales of $5.53 billion, a 2% increase from the same period last year, slightly below the market's expectations of $5.57 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.56, exceeding market expectations by 2 cents per share. Looking ahead, Ross Stores, Inc. revised its full-year earnings per share guidance to a range of $6.08 to $6.21, while the market expectation was $6.10 per share. As of writing, Ross Stores, Inc. was up over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday. Most popular Chinese stocks are rising in pre-market trading. In pre-market trading on Friday, as of the time of writing, MNSO (MNSO.US) was up over 8%, NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO.US) was up over 5%, PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (PDD.US) was up over 4%, Futu Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (FUTU.US), Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) were up over 2%, XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US), KINGSOFT CLOUD (KC.US) were up around 2%, Kanzhun Ltd. Sponsored ADR (BZ.US), Legend Biotech Corp. Sponsored ADR (LEGN.US), YUM CHINA (YUMC.US) were up over 1%. Upcoming Key Economic Data and Events 10:00 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.