Tariff callback expectations ferment, COMEX aluminum premiums fell across the board after August.

Due to market speculation that the US aluminum import tariffs may be halved or that major supplier Canada may be exempted, prices for aluminum premium contracts for delivery after August on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) have fallen. It is understood that the US tariffs on aluminum products are part of a series of measures to revitalize domestic smelting capacity and reduce dependence on imported aluminum. Aluminum, as an important industrial metal, is widely used in transportation, packaging, power, and construction industries. Since June 4th, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, causing spot premiums for August contracts to soar to 70 cents per pound (equivalent to $1543 per ton), an increase of nearly 90% from the end of May. Buyers in the US spot market typically pay a Midwest premium on top of the London Metal Exchange benchmark price to cover shipping and tax costs. Traders and industry sources have indicated that premiums for September and subsequent aluminum contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's COMEX have fallen, reflecting the market's anticipation of President Trump possibly scaling back aluminum import tariffs. The current premium for September Midwest aluminum is around 67 cents per pound, while the December contract has fallen to 60 cents. Data from information provider Trade Data Monitor shows that the US imported over 3.9 million tons of aluminum last year, with 70% (over 2.7 million tons) coming from Canada. However, consulting firm Harbor Aluminum believes that the tariff policy will continue, as the US government sees it as a crucial national security measure. In a report, the firm stated, "Harbor does not believe that the US will reduce the 50% tariff or provide exemptions...especially after the government has become reliant on tariff revenue," and predicts that "Midwest premiums will rise to 78 cents per pound by the end of the year, and reach 87 cents per pound by 2026."