The world's largest sugar-producing country, Brazil, sees a decrease in sugarcane production, leading to a rebound in raw sugar prices.

Due to concerns about a decrease in sugar cane production in Brazil, raw sugar futures saw their first increase in four days. As of the time of writing, raw sugar prices rose by 1.2% to reach 16.20 cents per pound. In the London market, white sugar prices rose by 1.6%. Claudiu Covrig, an analyst at Covrig Analytics, stated, "Although sugar cane crushing capacity is currently quite high due to being in the peak season of crushing, continuous reports of production decreases may lead to a sudden depletion of sugar cane harvest in Brazil in the fourth quarter." He also mentioned that sugar mills may exhaust sugar cane supply earlier than expected. Brazil's agricultural forecasting agency Conab stated in April that sugar cane production for the 2025-2026 season may total 6.634 billion tons, a 2% decrease from the previous year. Covrig mentioned that some are predicting production to be lower than 6 billion tons. Overall this year, despite some issues in Brazil's supply, prices have seen a slight decrease due to expectations of global oversupply. However, this decrease may be limited due to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, as it raises the minimum price threshold for ethanol, which in turn affects the profitability of ethanol production. Sugar mills adjust their sugar-to-ethanol ratio based on the relative levels of ethanol beat sugar price (i.e., the cost of producing ethanol converted to raw sugar price) and the raw sugar market price. When the ethanol beat sugar price is lower than the raw sugar price, mills tend to increase raw sugar production; conversely, they switch to ethanol production. This cost consideration directly impacts the supply of raw sugar, which then affects prices. Covrig stated, "Currently, the price assessment of ethanol raw material has fallen to about 15.5 cents per pound, rather than the previous 15 cents."