The darkest moment has passed? The profits of European and American human resources giants have slightly rebounded, and the dawn of industry recovery is beginning to emerge.
The performance of human resources service providers in Europe and the United States showed signs of stabilization in the second quarter.
After experiencing a dismal performance at the beginning of the year, human resources service providers in Europe and the United States showed signs of stabilization in the second quarter. MANPOWER GRC (MAN.US), Robert Half Inc. (RHI.US), and Adecco Group (AHEXY.US) reported a slight increase in profits, as employers began to adapt to the political and economic instability caused by GEO Group Inc.
Gross profits for human resources companies may have reached a turning point.
Mixed performance.
Adecco exceeded expectations in the second quarter, as the increase in flexible positions surpassed expectations, and the company expects better profits in the second half of the year.
Dutch competitor Randstad (RANJY.US) expressed a similar view, reporting stable gross profits compared to the previous period. CEO Sander van 't Noordende stated during the financial report conference call, "Market sentiment has slightly improved," which may boost the demand for temporary positions.
MANPOWER GRC's performance exceeded expectations. CEO Jonas Prising stated that companies can now adapt more easily to unforeseen impacts.
However, the overall tone of the industry remains cautious, with companies warning of numerous challenges in the future. Prising mentioned that although the North American market showed resilience, it is cooling off, while the situation in the Nordic region is "extremely challenging."
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Stuart Gordon said, "We are in a strange vacuum state, and I am not sure if the situation will worsen, but we need to see some positive signs to attract investors back. If we start to see a recovery in the second half of this year, then next year should be decent."
Robert Walters' performance was disappointing due to weak recruitment activities in Europe, leading to a 16% drop in gross profits in the first half of the year. The company canceled its interim dividend and warned that there would be no significant improvement in recruitment activities in the short term.
Robert Half Inc.'s third-quarter guidance was lower than expected, and comments about the rising confidence levels among small businesses failed to uplift shareholders. Since the performance announcement, the company's stock price has fallen by 19%, and it has dropped by 51% since the beginning of the year.
Job market remains sluggish.
Although hiring activities in the United States rebounded in July, job growth in the manufacturing and professional services sectors slowed down - key areas for MANPOWER GRC and Robert Half Inc. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Gordon and Evgeniy Batchvarov stated that tariffs are putting pressure on factory employment, while artificial intelligence and business uncertainty are inhibiting white-collar recruitment activities. Unemployment rates have also slightly increased.
In Europe, the situation is even more severe. The unemployment rate in the UK has reached its highest point in four years, while employment conditions in France and Germany remain bleak.
In the three months ending in June, the number of job vacancies in the UK fell further below pre-pandemic levels, mainly due to significant increases in the minimum wage and the 26 billion (US$35 billion) wage tax hike policy implemented by the Labour government. Gordon said, "Perhaps the worst is yet to come for the UK." He stated that labor costs are continuously rising.
Due to fluctuations in consumer and business confidence, as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies, a full recovery in the recruitment market may still take some time.
The performance in the next quarter may determine whether this industry can ultimately turn the tide. Gordon said, "Once these companies come out of the trough, the rebound speed will be very, very fast."
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