If Yoshihide Suga resigns as the Japanese Prime Minister, who are the potential successors?

In the Senate election last weekend, which resulted in a devastating defeat and led to the ruling coalition losing its majority, people have speculated that the difficult situation of Japanese Prime Minister Shizo Abe may be nearing its end. Earlier reports suggested that Abe planned to announce his resignation before the end of August, and it has been largely confirmed. However, according to the latest news, Abe stated on Wednesday afternoon that there is "no factual basis" for the reports from the Japanese media about his resignation. Abe mentioned that he had just finished a meeting with the highest advisors of the Liberal Democratic Party, Taro Aso, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, and Fumio Kishida, and they "did not discuss the matter of staying or leaving." Abe reiterated that he will remain in office and continue to lead. On July 22nd local time, US President Trump announced through social media that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement: a 15% tariff rate on Japanese goods and 550 billion USD of Japanese investment in the US. The 15% tariff rate is lower than the previously announced 25% tariff rate that Trump said would take effect from August 1st. According to Trump's instructions, Japan will invest 550 billion USD in the US, with the US receiving 90% of the profits. This agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. Trump also stated that perhaps the most important aspect is that Japan will open its markets for trade, including automobiles, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products. Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US. The latest developments in the US-Japan trade agreement have also removed obstacles for Abe's stepping down. He had previously cited trade negotiations as a reason to stay in office. Tobias Harris, founder of the Japanese political observer "Japan Foresight," stated in an interview on Wednesday: "The ruling party is ready to move on to the next step. But the upcoming leadership election in the Liberal Democratic Party will not be easy, as the next leader will face many challenges." He mentioned that these challenges include addressing concerns about loose fiscal spending, while trying to gain enough support from the opposition demanding tax cuts and increased subsidies. If the Liberal Democratic Party holds a leadership election internally and secures enough support from the opposition, the new leader may become Japan's next Prime Minister. However, it is also not ruled out that the opposition bloc may come together to nominate a non-Liberal Democratic Party candidate, potentially bringing the first non-Liberal Democratic Party Prime Minister since 2012. Here are some potential candidates to succeed Shizo Abe as Prime Minister: Shinjiro Koizumi: A representative of the Liberal Democratic Party advocating for lowering rice prices. As the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, he released emergency rice reserves to wholesalers, successfully lowering prices but also alienating rice farmers. At 44 years old, Koizumi represents the rise of the younger generation in the party, but his liberal tendencies might unsettle right-wing voters. Sanae Takaichi: A staunch conservative who narrowly lost to Shizo Abe in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election last year. If she can garner enough party support again, she may have a chance at the Prime Minister seat. Yoshimasa Hayashi: The current Chief Cabinet Secretary who is seen as a continuity candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party. He is known for handling crises in the party, and his stable record was highlighted during the last party leadership election. Hayashi, who studied at Harvard University, most notably served as the Foreign Minister in the Abe cabinet. Takayuki Kobayashi: A young and conservative politician who was considered a dark horse in the last Liberal Democratic Party leadership election. Despite losing, he managed to increase his visibility within the party and the public. He previously served as the Minister of Economic Security. Fumio Kishida: A former Prime Minister who may make a comeback to the center of power. He resigned last year due to a political funding scandal involving the Liberal Democratic Party. Reports suggest he is interested in running for Prime Minister again, but if the party chooses to bring him back, it may be challenging to create a fresh image for the party. Katsunobu Kato: While not garnering much support in last September's Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, Kato has connections in both conservative and reformist factions within the party, making him a potential unifying leader. As a former Finance Ministry official, he held critical roles during the terms of the past three prime ministers. Currently serving as the Finance Minister, he met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and successfully removed the exchange rate issue from the main agenda of trade negotiations. Yoshihiko Noda: As a former Prime Minister, Noda led the Constitutional Democratic Party to its best performance in the House of Representatives election last year and achieved some success in this year's Senate election. However, if he wants to form an alternative government to the Liberal Democratic Party, he still faces significant challenges. The Constitutional Democratic Party holds 148 seats in the House of Representatives, with a majority threshold of 233 seats, meaning he must secure all available support. This will likely require broad compromises with other opposition parties. Yuichiro Tamaki: The leader of the Democratic Party for the People has become a key figure in determining whether the Liberal Democratic Party can maintain its ruling coalition. In recent elections, the party has significantly expanded its presence in both houses of the Diet, with its main policy focus on increasing disposable income. Analysts believe that forming an alliance with the Democratic Party for the People is one of the feasible options for the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner Komeito to maintain a majority in the Diet. It is worth noting that the Liberal Democratic Party has a precedent of supporting non-party members as Prime Ministers, such as the support for Social Democratic Party member Tomiichi Murayama in 1994. Sohei Kamiya: As the leader of the right-wing political party "Sanseito," which was founded just five years ago, Kamiya unexpectedly made significant strides in the recent Senate election with slogans of "Japan First" and "Prosperity for the People," being compared to former US President Trump in his political style. In the Sunday election, Sanseito's Senate seats increased from 1 to 15. However, due to the party's radical views, Kamiya's chances of becoming a national leader are not high.