Don't just focus on inflation! Societe Generale Bank: Initial jobless claims reaching 250,000 mark becomes a "warning line" for US stocks.

As the S&P 500 index hits a new high, the French Industrial Bank indicates that inflation indicators remain the most important macroeconomic factor to watch, but stock investors should pay attention to the US labor market data. Manish Kabra, Director of US Stock Strategy at the French Industrial Bank, said, "Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are the most closely watched data points, but for stock investors, the weekly initial jobless claims in the US staying below 250,000 is crucial." He added that historical data shows that around six months before an economic recession, initial jobless claims tend to rise to nearly 300,000. It is known that the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 will be announced on Thursday at 20:30 Beijing time. The market expects this data to increase from the previous week's 221,000 to 229,000. Since October last year, initial jobless claims have remained below 250,000 and have not approached 300,000 since 2022. Samuel Tombs, US economist at Pantheon Macro, said, "Overall, the labor market is still slowing down." He expects that "in the coming weeks, initial jobless claims will rise to around 250,000."