Consumers turn "wait-and-see" due to tariff anxiety, NRF's unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail growth in June "hits the brakes"

The latest retail sales report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that the growth rate of retail sales slowed down in June due to consumer concerns. According to CNBC/NRF retail monitoring data, after seasonal adjustments, the total retail sales in June, excluding automobiles and gasoline, decreased by 0.33% month-on-month, but still increased by 3.19% year-on-year; while in May, these two figures were an increase of 0.49% and 4.44% respectively. Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said: "The data for June shows that the long-term uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policies may be causing consumers to take a 'wait-and-see' approach to their household budgets. This is the first monthly decline since February, with almost all industry spending showing a decrease. At present, the economic fundamentals have not been damaged, and consumers still have the ability to consume essential goods, but the economy is gradually slowing down, and it has already had an impact on consumer psychology. Although the passage of the 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' clearly supports economic growth, the unresolved restrictive trade policies remain a major obstacle." In the retail monitoring data, core retail sales (excluding automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) decreased by 0.32% month-on-month in June, but increased by 3.36% year-on-year; while in May, core retail sales increased by 0.23% and 4.2% respectively. In the first half of this year, total retail sales increased by 4.66% year-on-year, and core retail sales increased by 4.93% year-on-year. This monthly decline is the first since February - when both total retail sales and core retail sales decreased by 0.22% compared to January. Unlike official survey-based statistical data, retail monitoring data uses real anonymous credit and debit card consumption data collected by Affinity Solutions, without the need for monthly or yearly adjustments. In terms of categories, in June, 7 categories achieved year-on-year growth, with digital products (such as e-books and electronic games), sporting goods stores, and health and personal care stores leading the way; but only 1 category saw month-on-month growth, while the rest declined. Details of major categories are as follows: - Digital products: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month growth was 0.26%, and year-on-year growth was a significant 24.11%. - Health and personal care stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 0.31%, while year-on-year growth was 3.47%. - General merchandise stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 0.15%, but year-on-year growth was 3.18%. - Food and beverage stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 0.13%, while year-on-year growth was 2.59%. - Electronics and appliance stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 1.03%, while year-on-year growth was 2.43%. - Furniture and home furnishings stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 1.04%, and year-on-year decline was 1.14%. - Building materials and garden supply stores: After seasonal adjustments, month-on-month decline was 0.76%, and year-on-year decline was 5.33%.