Xiangcai Securities: DDR4 prices continue to rise, NAND prices moderately increase.

Xiangcai Securities released a research report stating that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron plan to exit the niche DRAM market, and the supply-demand reversal in niche DRAM will lead to price increases. The prices of niche DRAM in 2025 and 2026 are expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weak recovery trend in the smartphone, PC, IoT, and industrial control sectors continues, combined with the trend of domestic substitution, is expected to drive up prices for various storage original equipment manufacturers gradually, benefiting domestic storage OEMs. It is recommended to pay attention to GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. (603986.SH), Montage Technology (688008.SH), Giantec Semiconductor Corporation (688123.SH), and Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp. (688233.SH). Key points from Xiangcai Securities: The wave of DDR4 memory price increases is not stopping Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix exiting the DDR4 market, and the continued halt of quoting by Nanya Technology have continued to stimulate the DDR4 market, pushing prices up. As of July 9, 2025, the DXI index closed at 83072.69 points, with a weekly increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date increase of 86.1%. Trendforce predicts that the spot price increase for PC DDR4 in the third quarter will be 38%-43%; the spot price increase for server DDR4 is expected to be 28%-33%; and the spot price increase for consumer terminal DDR4 products is expected to be 40%-45%. It is expected that the spot price increase for LPDDR4X in the third quarter will be 23%-28%. Supply side sticking to stable price strategy, overall stable NAND Flash prices NAND channel market prices have remained stable due to the supply side sticking to a stable price strategy. The OEM shipment prices are basically the same as in late June. In embedded products, the supply side is willing to raise prices, but due to limited shipments, the impact on the spot market average price is weak. Data from Jibang Consulting shows that due to the expected moderate to low growth in demand for smartphones, the price increase for NAND products is lower. It is expected that the price increase for eMMC and UFS in Q3 will be 0%-5%, and 3D NAND Flash, benefiting from increased enterprise AI investments, is expected to increase by 8%-13%. Risk warning Insufficient downstream market demand; R&D progress lower than expected; intensified competition in the storage market; wafer manufacturing price increases exceeding expectations; unexpected changes in macro policies.