US housing price growth slows down, and the proportion of first-time homebuyers has dropped to a historic low.

The US real estate market is undergoing a structural shift, with supply rebounding and demand slowing down gradually leading to a cooling of housing prices, and this trend is accelerating. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index data released on Tuesday, as of April, home prices in the US rose only 2.7% year-on-year, the smallest increase in nearly two years, and further down from March's 3.4%. Although this report has a certain lag (reflecting three-month moving average data up to April), more real-time price tracking data from sources like Parcl Labs show that home prices in the US are nearly flat year-on-year, indicating that price weakness has become a trend. S&P data shows that the slowdown in housing prices has appeared in both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices covering major cities, both of which are significantly lower than recent highs. In addition, the year-on-year price increase in April mainly comes from the spring sales season of the past six months, rather than balanced growth throughout the year, indicating a concentration and shortening of market momentum. Despite the slowdown in price gains, high mortgage rates are still making many potential buyers hesitant. In April, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US briefly exceeded 7%, and although it has slightly fallen, it is still at a high level for many years, leading to monthly repayments for potential buyers nearing historic highs. First-time homebuyers only accounted for 30% of overall sales in May, well below the historical average of 40%. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the US points out that the impact of high mortgage costs is most severe on first-time buyers. Although the inventory of homes for sale has increased slightly, overall supply is still lower than pre-pandemic levels. According to Redfin data, currently only about 6% of homeowners are at risk of selling at a loss, slightly higher than a year ago, but still historically low. Godec pointed out, "The downside risk in the housing market is supported by inadequate supply. Most existing homeowners are unwilling to give up the low rates (below 4%) locked in during the pandemic, while the pace of new home construction cannot meet demand in a timely manner. This supply-demand imbalance prevents a sharp decline in the market like the one seen after the subprime crisis."