Oil prices and sea freight prices are set to soar again? Two super oil tankers urgently turned back in the Strait of Hormuz after the United States launched air strikes on Iran.

Ship tracking data shows that two supertankers capable of carrying about 2 million barrels of crude oil each turned back in the Strait of Hormuz after the US airstrike on Iran, highlighting the increasing maritime risks faced by large oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport vessels in the region. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament National Security Committee member Kusari stated that the Iranian parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, connects the eastern Arabian Gulf and the western Persian Gulf, serving as a crucial sea passage for the transportation of oil and LNG from the resource-rich Gulf region to the rest of the world. Approximately one-third of global seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is known that Iran has threatened in the past to close the strait in response to further Western sanctions or pressure related to nuclear issues. According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the supertankers "Coswisdom Lake" and "South Loyalty" suddenly changed course after entering the waters of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, heading south towards the entrance of the Persian Gulf. However, based on the channel data, both tankers were in ballast condition. Since Israel's sudden airstrikes on Iran on June 13, there has been a surge in electronic and signal disturbances in the waters of the Persian Gulf, but the arrival and subsequent course change of these two ships seem to align with normal tanker operation characteristics. Therefore, from a logical standpoint of changing course, the actions of these two supertankers may be an initial sign of transportation vessels, such as tankers, diverting their routes following the US airstrikes on Iran's large nuclear facilities. Considering the heightened geopolitical tensions, Iran may strengthen control over the Strait of Hormuz, particularly by prohibiting Western shipping vessels, such as those from the US, from entering the strait. If vessels are expected to wait for a period upon arrival at loading ports, they may prefer to anchor elsewhere outside the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran retaliates substantially or if disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz increase in frequency, there is a high probability of sharp rises in oil prices and freight rates once again. Options and derivative pricing have begun to factor in tail risk, with implied volatility in the crude oil trading market surging to levels unseen since 2020. Supertanker owners and crude oil traders are closely monitoring whether the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will continue to affect vessel routing and tanker dynamics. Earlier that day, the Greek shipping department issued a notice advising its vessels to reassess their voyages through the Strait of Hormuz and consider anchoring at safer ports until the geopolitical situation in the region subsides. Under the double stimulus of high supply chain dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in shipping risk, the probability of a "double surge in oil prices and freight rates" has significantly increased. However, it still depends on whether the geopolitical conflict in Iran and Israel continues to escalate, as well as the emergency adjustment capabilities of various parties, including US and Western world supertanker owners. Brent crude oil heading towards $100 super threshold? Before the US B-2 bombers attacked Iran's large nuclear facilities over the weekend, benchmark freight rates for tankers had already risen by nearly 90%, with derivative prices surging further on Sunday night. In addition, the international benchmark for crude oil - Brent crude oil futures prices could soar towards the super threshold of $100 under the expectation of Iran closing or massively controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street financial giant, stated that after the US attack on Iran, crude oil and natural gas prices may start a new round of increase, although the organization's fundamental forecast depends on whether oil supplies in the region are severely disrupted. Goldman analysts, including Daan Struyven, pointed out in a report that if the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz were to halve within a month and maintain a downwards trend of 10% in the following 11 months, Brent crude oil prices would briefly surge to $110 per barrel. If Iran's daily oil supply were to decrease by 1.75 million barrels, Brent crude oil prices would reach a peak of $90. As the Middle East crisis escalates, the global crude oil trading market is trying to predict the possible trend of energy prices. After the US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, crude oil futures prices surged in early Asian trading, now approaching nearly $79 per barrel. Subsequently, Brent crude oil prices retraced some of these gains, with the market once again focusing on whether actual crude oil flows have remained unimpeded. However, Wall Street analysts generally believe that although Iran continues to threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz, a complete closure of the strait remains a low-probability event. In the baseline scenario, military conflicts in the Middle East will not necessarily completely disrupt oil flows, but with Iran possibly strengthening control over the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario where oil exports from Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, decrease and shipping costs rise is seen as a more likely development. Looking back at history, Iran has indeed affected the Strait of Hormuz during times of war and has repeatedly threatened to close it, but has not yet carried out a complete, sustained, and comprehensive blockade of the strait. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the reason Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz is because the cost of closure is too high for Iran itself. Not only would it violate international norms, but it would also directly threaten the economic interests of Gulf countries and potentially isolate Iran from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The economic and strategic risks of completely closing the Strait of Hormuz are extremely high, and the Iranian side is well aware of the benefits and drawbacks, which is the core logic behind Iran's continued refrain from closing the strait. Iran's economy is highly reliant on oil exports, and the shipment of oil through the "dark fleet" to evade Western sanctions also needs to go through the Strait of Hormuz, so closing it would severely harm Iran's already fragile economic lifeline. However, Morgan Stanley's report further suggests that once the US becomes involved, this conflict escalates into a full-scale war in the Middle East, this "red line" may be crossed. Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz were completely blocked, oil prices could soar into the $120-130 range.