Iranian political circles are increasingly blocking the voice of Hormuz Brent crude oil surging towards $100?

According to media reports citing informed sources, an Iranian senior lawmaker stated on Thursday that Iran could retaliate against enemies by closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, another lawmaker mentioned that this measure affecting the global economy would only be taken if Tehran's key interests were threatened. The calls for blocking the Strait of Hormuz among political figures in Iran have been increasingly vocal, and if the blockade were to happen, the international oil benchmark Brent crude price could surpass $100 per barrel, and even potentially reach Morgan Stanley's projected range under the most pessimistic geopolitical conditions - $120-$130. In the past, Iran has threatened several times to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to further Western sanctions pressure or nuclear concerns. Shipping sources had reported on Wednesday that some large commercial ships or oil/liquefied natural gas tankers had started avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. According to information disclosed by sources, Behnam Saeedi, a member of the Iranian parliamentary National Security Committee, told the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency, "Iran has various ways to respond to enemies, and will choose appropriate options based on the situation. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the major potential options." Shortly after, Mehr news agency cited another lawmaker, Ali Yazdikhah, who said, "As long as Iran's core national interests are not threatened, Iran will continue to allow free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the adjacent Gulf." However, Yazdikhah added, "If the U.S. officially and practically supports Jewish Zionists (Israel) in the conflict, then, from the perspective of putting pressure on the U.S. and Western countries, Iran has a legitimate right to hinder smooth passage through the strait for their oil and liquefied natural gas trade." President Donald Trump is still keeping the outside world guessing about whether the U.S. will join Israel in bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, rather than revealing the next steps of the U.S. military, which some military experts see as the negotiation window remaining open for the Iran nuclear issue. Yazdikhah further remarked that Tehran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz so far because almost all Middle Eastern countries and many other countries benefit significantly from it. "It would be best if no country supported Israel in confronting Iran. Iran's enemies are well aware that we have dozens of ways to make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe, and this option is indeed feasible for us." If the Iran-Israel conflict does not significantly escalate, the likelihood of the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains low. The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iranian territory, serving as the core export channel for Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and major natural gas-producing countries. Approximately 25% of global daily oil consumption - around 18 million barrels - is transported through the 33-kilometer (21-mile) wide Strait of Hormuz at its narrowest point. According to Clarkson's statistics, 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, including 34% of maritime crude oil exports, 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports, 20% of liquefied natural gas trade, 18% of chemical trade, 7% of automotive trade, 3% of global container trade, and 2% of dry bulk trade. However, Wall Street analysts generally believe that despite Iran's constant threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, a complete closure of the strait remains a low probability event. In the base case scenario, Middle East military conflicts will not necessarily interrupt oil flows, but a reduction in Iranian oil exports is seen as a more likely development. Historically, Iran has indeed impacted the Strait of Hormuz during wars, and has repeatedly threatened to block it, but has not yet actually carried out a thorough, sustained, and comprehensive blockade of the strait. Therefore, analysts believe that the likelihood of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains low unless the Iran-Israel conflict significantly escalates. This significant escalation mainly refers to the U.S. officially participating in the attack on Iran, especially through B-52 bombers dropping "massive bunker busters" to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and officially joining the conflict. According to media reports, former Iranian Minister of Economy Ehsan Khandouzi made a statement on social media, requiring that oil tankers and liquefied natural gas cargo ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz only with Iranian permission, stating that this policy should be implemented "100 days from Wednesday." "If implemented promptly, this policy will have a decisive significance. Any delay in implementation means the continuation of war," Khandouzi wrote in a post on Tuesday. He also stated, "The battle related to Trump must end through a combination of economic and security means." Will the $130 oil price ghost reappear? Therefore, the key issue regarding the Strait of Hormuz at the moment is whether the U.S. will officially intervene in the military conflict between Iran and Israel. If formal intervention occurs, a complete blockade of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to the total cessation of transportation through the strait, is almost certain, and the global energy market will experience severe turmoil. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Iran has always refrained from closing the Strait of Hormuz because the cost of closure is too high for Iran itself. It would not only violate international norms but also directly threaten the economic interests of Gulf countries, potentially isolating Iran from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley's report further points out that once the conflict escalates to a full-scale Middle East war after U.S. involvement, this "red line" may be crossed. Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could spike to the $120-$130 range. On Thursday, due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threatening the energy supply from that crucial region, Brent crude futures prices continued to rise, surpassing $78 per barrel, hitting a five-month high. The economic strategic risks associated with closing the Strait of Hormuz are extremely high, and Iran is well aware of its pros and cons. This is also the core logic behind why Iran has not closed the strait so far. The Iranian economy heavily relies on oil exports, and the oil exported via the "dark fleet," evading Western sanctions, also needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and a closure would severely damage Iran's already fragile economic lifeline.